Will Gausman Hold Down the Red Sox?

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Blue Jays vs. Red Sox, 7:10 ET

Last night we were coasting to a 2-1 night. Then, the Royals dropped five runs on the Diamondbacks after Zac Gallen left the game. Still, we were in a spot to cash the bet… until with two outs, and two strikes, Christian Walker homered to center field to cash the over and crush our under. We’ve had a couple of tough beats the last few days. This tends to balance out over the season, but is still frustrating when it happens.

The Blue Jays are playing good baseball at the right time. They’ve won five of their last six games, and look to sweep the Red Sox tonight. They are in a good spot to do so with Kevin Gausman taking the ball. Gausman has been as good as advertised for the Blue Jays since coming over in the offseason. He is now at a 2.99 ERA, and he has been outstanding in August. He has four starts spanning 25.2 innings that resulted in five earned runs total. This also has been the best month for him in terms of batting average against him. A couple of other big notes – in road starts, Gausman has been outstanding with a 1.65 ERA. He’s only allowed 13 earned runs on the road all season. He also has dominated Boston this year. He has four starts, covering 26 innings, and allowed just four earned runs on the season. He’s also struck out 37 Red Sox in those starts.

The Red Sox send Kutter Crawford to the mound. He’s been pretty solid for most of the season, but this month has been brutal for him. Nothing worse than his last start, though when he allowed nine earned runs in just 3.2 innings against the Orioles. In 20.2 innings this month, he has allowed 17 earned runs. It is important to note that he does also have two quality starts this month. While his numbers are a bit inflated, it hasn’t been all bad. He had a quality start against Toronto in his one and only outing.

I think the best play here is to take the Red Sox team total under 3.5 at -110. Crawford could have a good enough game and keep the Red Sox close enough to cover the run line, and the moneyline is too expensive for me.

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Written by David Troy

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