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Both the Seattle Mariners (76-58) and Chicago White Sox (67-67) are in playoff contention entering their three-game series opener Monday. The Mariners are 2 games atop the AL Wild Card standings. The White Sox are third in the AL Central, 2 games behind the Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins.
Seattle has been profitable after a shakey start and Chicago is underwhelming. But, I’m BETTING the CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-120) at DraftKings Sportsbook.
White Sox Taking ‘Sharp’ Action
Chicago appears to be the ‘sharp’ side based on the betting splits. There’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario going down in the betting market for the White Sox (-120) at the Mariners (+100).
A slight majority of the cash is on Chicago’s moneyline (ML). Whereas roughly 70% of the bets placed are on Seattle’s ML at the time of publishing, according to Pregame.com. Typically, you want to follow the money column since professional bettors put up a lot more dough than you or I.
However, I’m backing the WHITE SOX (-120) because they have starting pitching and hitting edges over the Mariners (+100) Monday.
Chicago’s 2-Phase Edge
The White Sox rake left-handed pitching. Chicago’s lineup ranks third in wRC+, 4th in wOBA and tied for 7th in BB/K rate, per FanGraphs. Also, give me Chicago starting RHP Lance Lynn (4-5, 4.70 ERA) over Seattle LHP Marco Gonzales (10-12, 3.99 ERA).
Lynn has better K and BB rates and a lower FIP (4.93-4.13) than Gonzales and a lower ERA over the last seven starts (4.65-2.98).
On top of that, Lynn has a higher K% with a better expecting batting average, wOBA and expected slugging percentage slash line vs. Seattle’s current lineup than Gonzales against the White Sox, according to Statcast.
Finally, the Mariners could be road weary and the White Sox are 4-1 in the last five games. Seattle is coming off a six-game road trip and got out of Cleveland late Sunday due to a rain delay.
BET the CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-120) at DraftKings Sportsbook.
- A $120 bet on the White Sox (-120) nets a $100 profit if Chicago wins outright.
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