What To Bet Now That World Series Is Set
Diamondbacks vs. Rangers
The World Series is set with the Diamondbacks and the Rangers. Both teams were extreme longshots at the beginning of the season to win the World Series, but both were pretty valuable just to make the playoffs. Only a few years removed from losing 100 games, the franchises have been able to turn around their fortunes rather quickly and now one will be crowned the 2023 MLB champion. Let's take a look at this series and see how we should bet it.
The Diamondbacks had a very interesting path to the World Series. They started the season very hot and were looking like one of the better teams in baseball, but not a team I would've thought could make it to the World Series. I was higher on the Diamondbacks than most that I know of, but even I would've told you this was a stretch. Their rookie, Corbin Carroll, had a great year, and will likely be Rookie of the Year. Their two aces, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, were dominant, and led them to lead the division at the All-Star Break. Then for some reason they really struggled. That gave the Dodgers the window to steal the division and the Diamondbacks slipped into third place. Somehow they were able to rally around and get back on track. A hot August and September allowed them to get into the Wild Card race and finally take one of the final two spots. After sweeping Milwaukee in Milwaukee, I recommended that everyone play the Diamondbacks to beat the Dodgers. That cashed as the Diamondbacks swept. Facing the Phillies, they dropped the first two games, took two at home, and then came back to Philly having to win two games. They did it, and they did it with relative ease. This is not a team that seems to get flustered in big situations (even if I thought they would). In order to stop the Rangers, they essentially need to do the same thing they did against the Phillies - stop Adolis Garcia and Corey Seager. They didn't really stop Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, but they survived. Kelly and Gallen will need to be much sharper than they were against the Phillies. Kelly had a nice Game 6, but his first game was a disaster.
HOUSTON, TEXAS - OCTOBER 23: Adolis Garcia #53 of the Texas Rangers celebrates after hitting a solo home run against Jose Urquidy #65 of the Houston Astros during the eighth inning in Game Seven of the American League Championship Series at Minute Maid Park on October 23, 2023 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
While their opponent had an interesting path to the World Series, the Rangers were much more straightforward getting here. It wasn't that they were expected to get here (I think they were something like 90-1 to win the World Series to start the year). Texas started the year very hot and their offense was the best or among the best the entire season. Their pitching performed admirably all season even after losing Jacob deGrom to injury relatively early in the year. Nathan Eovaldi, the other big name they signed this offseason, was able to produce a great campaign and has been great in the playoffs. Their trade acquisition, Max Scherzer, hasn't looked great, but now with two starts under his belt, he might be in better form for this series. The Rangers started the playoffs winning seven straight games and then also came back to Houston needing to win both road games. They did and Garcia was a beast in the games. In order to win this one, they don't need to stop a powerhouse offense, but they will need their offense to stay in rhythm against some very good Diamondback pitching.
This series is much closer than people are assuming. The books listed the Rangers as -170 favorites and I think that is a bit outrageous. The Diamondbacks are very live dogs in this series. At +140, the Diamondbacks are the true value play here. I think the Diamondbacks at -145 +1.5 games is a decent bet as well. The Rangers continue to get the job done this season, but I'm not quite sold on them winning the series. I'll take the Diamondbacks at +140, but wouldn't be surprised if it ends up losing. The reason for this is the teams are evenly matched and I think there is decent value on Arizona here.
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