What Schedules Could Look Like If SEC Moves to 9 Conference Games
There’s bad news coming for the likes of New Mexico State, Charleston Southern, UL-Monroe, Tennessee State, South Alabama, and Prairie View A&M. Their SEC payday is almost over.
I didn’t choose these schools randomly. All of them had a game against an SEC opponent in Week 12 on November 20, 2021. Those six schools received checks from $500K-$1.3 million to lose by an average of 40 points per game.
My co-host on “OutKick 360” Jonathan Hutton has a good solution for what should happen to these games and you should give it a look.
CUPCAKES AND CASH: HOW THE SEC CAN SCHEDULE BOTH
The future of sport is inevitable when that future involves more money for those in power. And the SEC is the undisputed power of College Football.
History shows they won’t throw money out the window to give themselves one more win while propping up smaller programs for the “good of the game.” The rubber is getting set to hit the road which means UMASS won’t continue to hit the road for College Station, TX in November. And yes, this is an actual game set to take place on Nov. 19th of this year.
Operating under the assumption that it’s just a matter of time before the SEC moves to a nine-game conference schedule and my belief that a 6-3 model featuring three constant opponents for all 16 SEC teams (including Texas and Oklahoma) and six rotating opponents that gives every team the opportunity to play every other team in the conference over a two-year period, I came up with my three constant opponents for every SEC team.
I am keeping in mind in-state, prior divisional, and prior cross-division rivalries while understanding that they can’t keep every single game that matters to every single fanbase while also maintaining some modicum of fairness. I also fully admit there’s no truly fair system for every team. And the same goes for the current model that pits one constant opponent from the opposite division every year.
So with those caveats, here are my three constant opponents for every SEC team.
Depending on your fandom, you probably have very different reactions to this plan. Let’s dive in with historical analysis of all of these series and what it means in terms of keeping big time rivalries while also being as fair to each team’s history as possible. I’m analyzing schedules in order of all-time conference win %, so Alabama is first while Kentucky is last. Oklahoma and Texas have played more SEC games than most would realize. The results of this order may surprise some. Here it goes.
TEAM: Alabama
SEC WIN % RANKING: 1st
SEC WIN %: 68.58
CONSTANT OPPONENTS: Tennessee, Auburn, Texas
OPPONENTS COMBINED SEC WIN %: 58.88
VERDICT: Tough but fair, given Alabama’s history
TEAM: Oklahoma
SEC WIN % RANKING: 2nd
SEC WIN %: 65.87
CONSTANT OPPONENTS: Texas, Missouri, Texas A&M
OPPONENTS COMBINED SEC WIN %: 54.08
VERDICT: Perfect mix of old Big 8/Big 12 rivalries plus the OU/Texas game is an annual affair.
TEAM: Texas
SEC WIN % RANKING: 3rd
SEC WIN %: 65.41
CONSTANT OPPONENTS: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Alabama
OPPONENTS COMBINED SEC WIN %: 60.43
VERDICT: Who isn’t watching these games every year?
TEAM: Georgia
SEC WIN % RANKING: 4th
SEC WIN %: 60.08
CONSTANT OPPONENTS: Florida, South Carolina, Auburn
OPPONENTS COMBINED SEC WIN %: 48.81
VERDICT: World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party and the longest running rivalry in the South are played annually.
TEAM: Tennessee
SEC WIN % RANKING: 5th
SEC WIN %: 56.90
CONSTANT OPPONENTS: Alabama, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
OPPONENTS COMBINED SEC WIN %: 43.32
VERDICT: Some will argue this is too soft on Tennessee, but since Tennessee has mostly been average to below for 20 years and Kentucky has been out performing their historically league-worst SEC win %, that stance should soften.
TEAM: LSU
SEC WIN % RANKING: 6th
SEC WIN %: 56.56
CONSTANT OPPONENTS: Arkansas, Florida, Miss. State
OPPONENTS COMBINED SEC WIN %: 44.62
VERDICT: Tiger fans have to be happy with this scenario.
TEAM: Florida
SEC WIN % RANKING: 7th
SEC WIN %: 56.20%
CONSTANT OPPONENTS: Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss
OPPONENTS COMBINED SEC WIN %: 52.71
VERDICT: Gators' winning % vs opponents is very close with added bonus of keeping two big time rivals.
TEAM: Auburn
SEC WIN % RANKING: 8th
SEC WIN %: 54.53
CONSTANT OPPONENTS: Vanderbilt, Alabama, Georgia
OPPONENTS COMBINED SEC WIN %: 53.37
VERDICT: As close to perfection as you will see on this list.
TEAM: Missouri
SEC WIN % RANKING: 9th
SEC WIN %: 50
CONSTANT OPPONENTS: South Carolina, Oklahoma, Arkansas
OPPONENTS COMBINED SEC WIN %: 48.41
VERDICT: I’m not overly excited about any of these games, but most are a fair compromise. Missouri win % benefits from a short time in SEC and a great start in SEC under Gary Pinkel.
TEAM: Texas A&M
SEC WIN % RANKING: 10th
SEC WIN %: 46.84%
CONSTANT OPPONENTS: Kentucky, Texas, Oklahoma
OPPONENTS COMBINED SEC WIN %: 53.97
VERDICT: Aggies will take any combination of constant opponents, as long as one of them is burnt orange.
TEAM: Arkansas
SEC WIN % RANKING: 11th
SEC WIN %: 43.52
CONSTANT OPPONENTS: LSU, Ole Miss, Missouri
OPPONENTS COMBINED SEC WIN %: 49.11
VERDICT: We’ve entered the portion of our ranking where there’s no avoiding playing up in win %.
TEAM: Ole Miss
SEC WIN % RANKING: 12th
SEC WIN %: 40.73
CONSTANT OPPONENTS: Miss. State, Arkansas, Florida
OPPONENTS COMBINED SEC WIN %: 44.62
VERDICT: Give me Egg Bowl on Thanksgiving night or give me nothing at all.
TEAM: South Carolina
SEC WIN % RANKING: 13th
SEC WIN %: 35.92
CONSTANT OPPONENTS: Missouri, Georgia, Vanderbilt
OPPONENTS COMBINED SEC WIN %: 47.18
VERDICT: South Carolina’s biggest rival is in the ACC.
TEAM: Miss. State
SEC WIN % RANKING: 14th
SEC WIN %: 34.14
CONSTANT OPPONENTS: Ole Miss, Kentucky, LSU
OPPONENTS COMBINED SEC WIN %: 42.65
VERDICT: Mississippi State/Kentucky may be the most underrated of the current cross-divisional constant opponent format.
TEAM: Vanderbilt
SEC WIN % RANKING: 15th
SEC WIN %: 30.75
CONSTANT OPPONENTS: Auburn, Tennessee, South Carolina
OPPONENTS COMBINED SEC WIN %: 49.05
VERDICT: This gives Vandy fans the opportunity to do the two things they love the most. Cheer like crazy for their team to upset the big, ugly orange brother to the east and spend every other week cheering against them.
TEAM: Kentucky
SEC WIN % RANKING: 16th
SEC WIN %: 30.63
CONSTANT OPPONENTS: Texas A&M, Miss. State, Tennessee
OPPONENTS COMBINED SEC WIN %: 45.96
VERDICT: Most years Kentucky fans would be happy to win one of these three games. Given their current program, they will be angry to not win two out of the three with regularity.
What do you think? Email me at Chad.Withrow@OutKick.com