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After two stunners, the first being Week 1 as the Saints got rolled by the Bucs, and the second last week when the Bills shocked the Vikings, our confidence is waning, but better times are ahead as we check out Week 4 where we rate our most confident straight up pick (16) all the way to our least confident (1). The point spread on each game is in parentheses but these picks are not against the spread.
Week 3 Straight Up Record: 8-8 (65 of possible136)
15. (Confidence rating) Packers: Bills at Packers (-10): Let’s try this again and fade the Bills once more as Buffalo should be basking in the afterglow of the most shocking outright win of this season or any other in recent memory. Packers are determined to atone for their sins in Washington, while the Bills will be taken more seriously than ever.
14. Chargers: 49ers at Chargers (-10½): Sweet Jimmy G is lost for the season and C.J. Beathard is under center for San Fran. The Bolts have a future Hall-of-Fame QB in Philip Rivers who should carve up the Niners secondary while the 49ers offense will limp along without Garoppolo barking signals.
13. Jaguars: Jets at Jaguars (-7½): Sam Darnold will find out he’s in a whole new world when the Jags defense comes to play. Although Jacksonville’s offense is certainly suspect, their defense is not and when the final gun sounds the Jags will be victorious.
12. Patriots: Dolphins at Patriots (-7): The Pats looked about as bad as we can recall last week in their loss to Detroit, but that just means that Bill Belichick will go to his Evil Genius war room and devise a dastardly plan to hook the Fish.
11. Rams: Vikings at Rams (-7): Thursday night. As long as we are picking based on the winner and not the point spread being dealt by some of the best online sportsbooks, which can be seen all in one place at Sportsbook Review, we will assume the Rams will keep doing what they have been doing – winning.
10. Falcons: Bengals at Falcons (-5): The Bengals defense allowed the Panthers to ring up 31 points last week, and we know Matty Ice and the Falcons are capable of at least that. Two porous defenses in this one, but side with Atlanta under the dome here.
9. Seahawks: Seahawks (-3) at Cardinals: It will be a hot one in the desert, but Seattle has played tough in all three games thus far, and although their offense has sputtered look at their Week 4 opponent!
8 .Cowboys: Lions at Cowboys (-3): The last time the Lions made their way to Jerry Jones’ playground they were dominated in a 42-21 romp. After their huge win over the Patriots last week they could very well be susceptible to a letdown and another long day in the Lone Star State.
7. Titans: Eagles at Titans (+4): We like what newly installed head coach Mike Vrabel is bringing to the table in Nashville and it wouldn’t surprise us one bit if the still-rusty Carson Wentz got a big surprise from the Tennessee defense. Marcus Mariota will be under center, and hopefully his injury is healing quickly.
6. Bears: Bucs at Bears (-3): Jameis Winston will be brooding, ah sitting, on the sidelines while Ryan Fitzpatrick goes to work and tries to continue his Cinderella season. But he will be staring down the barrel of a Bears defense that should give him fits. It’s almost midnight Ryan.
5. Ravens: Ravens (+4) at Steelers: The Pittsburgh locker room is like one big soap opera between Le’Veon Bell continuing his holdout and Antonio Brown not feeling the love (and not running terrific routes by the way), so we will go with their notorious divisional rivals from Baltimore who looked solid on both sides of the ball last week against the Broncos.
4. Chiefs: Chiefs (-5) at Broncos: The Chiefs are 4-0 straight up and against the spread against the Broncos over their last four meetings, and it’s hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes after his stellar performances this season. That said, this one will be closer than most anticipate.
3. Browns: Browns at Raiders (-3): Cleveland still has that stigma of being Cleveland, but Baker Mayfield appears bent on changing all of that and the Raiders have done nothing to merit being a favorite to anyone this season.
2. Giants: Saints (-3½) at Giants: New York impressed last week with a solid win over the Texans in Houston. Conversely, the Saints don’t seem to want to play any defense and prefer to win the track meets. If New York can slow down Drew Brees and chew up the clock on the ground with Saquon Barkley running the rock, then this one could get interesting.
1. Colts: Texans at Colts (-2): We wouldn’t touch this game with your money, but better to be Lucky than good so we will side with Indianapolis at home in a crap shoot.
Bye Weeks: Washington and Carolina
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