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Vegas top 10

Vegas is a town synonymous with impulsive decision making. Whether it’s excessive food or alcohol consumption, an abundance of unnecessary exposed skin (this applies to guys as well), or a 12-hour blackjack session, what happens here is rarely reality anywhere else.  However, there’s one aspect of the casino business that the entire country should buy into as it pertains to Vegas; perception of the national sports landscape.  Nowhere else will you find a more objective group of individuals responsible for creating proper valuations of teams. The amount hours and dedication put into the pointspread is why we should turn to the oddsmaking fraternity to better understand exactly what teams are worthy of inclusion in college football’s top 10 after 3+ weeks of action.

Fans will inevitably be offended (not quite like reading Clay’s columns but I digress) when they don’t see their favorite team with the same ranking in the Vegas poll as the media has bestowed upon them.  On second thought, the SEC readership will actually embrace our top 10 above the AP and Coaches poll because there’s such strong conference representation atop the leaderboard.  When monitoring how Vegas ranks the field, understand objectivity is paramount for oddsmakers setting pointspreads on every single game.  When mistakes are made by not pricing teams correctly, there’s millions of dollars lost whereas a journalist believing Ohio St is better than Texas A&M, LSU, Georgia, or South Carolina experiences no negative consequences for his incorrect assessment.
 

  AP Coaches Advantage (Vegas) Bettors
         
1 Alabama Albama Alabama Alabama
2 Oregon Oregon Oregon Oregon
3 Clemson Ohio State Florida St Florida St
4 Ohio St Clemson Stanford LSU
5 Stanford Stanford Georgia Georgia
6 LSU Louisville LSU Stanford
7 Louisville LSU Texas A&M Texas A&M
8 Florida St Florida St South Carolina Florida  
9 Georgia Texas A&M Ohio State South Carolina
10 Texas A&M Georgia Florida   Oklahoma St

There are obvious discrepancies across the 4 polls but there is no disputing Alabama deserves top billing in all of them.  The perceived gap between Alabama and Oregon is closing for the general public however I remain steadfast in my belief that if the 2 teams do meet for the national championship, the extended layoff and coaching mismatch will end up cementing the Tide’s legacy as a college football dynasty with their 4th national championship in 5 years.  This week the Golden Nugget opened Alabama -3 (-120) vs Oregon for the potential showdown between the current #1 and #2.  If these teams don’t meet for the title, those bettors making the wager will have their ticket refunded.
 
After the consensus top 2, the landscape gets muddled depending on who you ask. AP pollsters have Clemson #3 although it might be safe to assume they’ll drop after last night’s lethargic performance in Raleigh while the coaches remain steadfast in believing Ohio St has a rightful claim to the 3 position.  More important than the AP and Coaches view of #3, there is complete agreement from the bettors and bookmakers on who the third best team in the country really is; Florida State.  LSU, Georgia, and Stanford fall into the next 3 spots as the 4-6 best teams although there is debate on how the teams should actually be ordered. Interestingly its starting at the 7 spot where the chasm created by the top 6 and everyone else widens before you get to Texas A&M, South Carolina, and Florida.  Without harping on Louisville yet again, you’ll notice they’re inconspicuously absent in the Advantage and Bettors poll whereas the Coaches and AP rank the Cardinals 6th and 7th respectively.  If we were to see Louisville matched up with Alabama for the national title, Alabama would open up as more than a 2 touchdown favorite.  Fans and the media drive the passion and pageantry of college football but I still wouldn’t let them to pick the 2 best teams worthy of playing for a national title if last year was any indication.  For the complete Vegas poll, click here.
 
Nick Saban to Texas?
 
We all know the rumor flying around the SEC right now is that Nick Saban will flirt with taking over the Longhorns when Mack Brown is relieved of his duties at the end of the year.  How confident are you in this scenario actually unfolding? You can now put your money where your mouth is thanks to oddsmakers at an offshore sportsbook called Sportsinteraction.  Their team set a price of 12-1 that Saban will be the next head coach in Austin.  Personally this price is a little low and despite me saying previously I made him a 6-1 shot, I’ll recant my statement and say somewhere in the 20 to 25-1 range feels like fair market value.  Thanks to all yall on twitter who shared your ideas about a correct price and led to this prop bet even being posted in the first place.
 
Looking Ahead
 
The LVH updates all of their Game of the Year college football lines throughout the season. Here’s the complete list of current numbers for the biggest games remaining on the college football slate this fall.  If you’re wondering what team has seen the biggest move in their games; look no further than the aforementioned burnt Orange of Texas who have experienced nearly a 9 pt dropoff in power ratings by the leading oddsmaker in the industry Kenny White.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 26, 2013
 
VIRGINIA TECH
GEORGIA TECH -2
 
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 27, 2013
 
UTAH ST -8.5
SAN JOSE ST
 
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 28, 2013
 
LSU
GEORGIA -3
 
TEXAS A&M -13
ARKANSAS
 
USC
ARIZONA ST -7.5
 
OKLAHOMA
NOTRE DAME -1
 
WISCONSIN
OHIO ST xxxx QB-??
 
 
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 3, 2013
 
TEXAS -12.5
IOWA ST
 
UCLA -6.5
UTAH
 
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 4, 2013
 
BYU
UTAH ST -2
 
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 5, 2013
 
TCU
OKLAHOMA -9.5
 
NOTRE DAME
ARIZONA ST -1                        @ ARLINGTON, TX
 
OHIO ST xxxx   QB–??
NORTHWESTERN
 
 
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 10, 2013
 
RUTGERS
LOUISVILLE -17
 
ARIZONA
USC -6
 
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 11, 2013
 
TEMPLE
CINCINNATI -20
 
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 12, 2013

 

TEXAS

OKLAHOMA -5                                @ DALLAS, TX

 

FLORIDA

LSU -7

 

TEXAS A&M

OLE MISS -1
 
STANFORD -11
UTAH
 
OREGON -11.5
WASHINGTON
 
MICHIGAN -5.5
PENN ST
 
BOISE ST
UTAH ST -3
 
 
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2013
 
MIAMI FL
NORTH CAROLINA -2
 
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 18, 2013
 
CENTRAL FLORIDA
LOUISVILLE -10.5
 
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 19, 2013
 
FLORIDA ST
CLEMSON -1
 
FLORIDA -5
MISSOURI
 
TCU
OKLAHOMA ST -10.5
 
LSU -4
OLE MISS
 
UCLA
STANFORD -8
 
USC
NOTRE DAME -7
 
 
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2013
 
KENTUCKY
MISSISSIPPI ST -11
 
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 25, 2013
 
BOISE ST
BYU -7
 
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 26, 2013
 
SOUTH CAROLINA -5
MISSOURI
 
TENNESSEE
ALABAMA -28
 
TEXAS -3
TCU
 
UNLV
NEVADA -6.5
 
UCLA
OREGON -18.5
 
STANFORD -7.5
OREGON ST
 
 
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 31, 2013
 
ARIZONA ST -10
WASHINGTON ST
 
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 1, 2013
 
USC
OREGON ST -1
 
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 2, 2013
 
MIAMI FL
FLORIDA ST -12
 
NORTH CAROLINA -4
NC STATE
 
MICHIGAN -3
MICHIGAN ST
 
FLORIDA
GEORGIA -4.5                    @ JACKSONVILLE, FL
 
 
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2013
 
OKLAHOMA PK
BAYLOR
 
OREGON -6.5
STANFORD
 
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 8, 2013
 
LOUISVILLE -16.5
U CONN
 
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 9, 2013
 
NEBRASKA
MICHIGAN -9.5
 
BYU
WISCONSIN -6.5
 
LSU
ALABAMA -10
 
 
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 14, 2013
 
GEORGIA TECH
CLEMSON -14
 
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 2013
 
WASHINGTON
UCLA -3.5
 
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 16, 2013
 
FLORIDA
SOUTH CAROLINA -3.5
 
TCU -4
KANSAS ST
 
MICHIGAN ST
NEBRASKA -3.5
 
MICHIGAN -3.5
NORTHWESTERN
 
OKLAHOMA ST -4.5
TEXAS
 
STANFORD -6.5
USC
 
 
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 2013
 
UNLV
AIR FORCE -6.5
 
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 22, 2013
 
NAVY
SAN JOSE ST -3.5
 
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 2013
 
NEBRASKA PK
PENN ST
 
VANDERBILT
TENNESSEE -2.5
 
OKLAHOMA -10
KANSAS ST
 
MICHIGAN ST
NORTHWESTERN -4
 
TEXAS A&M
LSU -7.5
 
OREGON -19.5
ARIZONA
 
WASHINGTON -4
OREGON ST
 
ARIZONA ST
UCLA -3
 
BYU
NOTRE DAME -6.5
 
 
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 28, 2013
 
OLE MISS -7
MISSISSIPPI ST
 
TEXAS TECH
TEXAS -7.5
 
FRIDAY, NOVEBER 29, 2013
 
WASHINGTON ST
WASHINGTON -16
 
OREGON ST
OREGON -26.5
 
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 30, 2013
 
GEORGIA -10
GEORGIA TECH
 
VIRGINIA TECH -7.5
VIRGINIA
 
OHIO ST xxxx  QB–??
MICHIGAN
 
FLORIDA ST -2
FLORIDA
 
CLEMSON
SOUTH CAROLINA -3
 
KANSAS ST -14.5
KANSAS
 
TEXAS A&M -3.5
MISSOURI
 
ALABAMA -21
AUBURN
 
BAYLOR
TCU -2
 
ARIZONA
ARIZONA ST -10
 
UCLA -1
USC
 
NOTRE DAME
STANFORD -10
 
 
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 5, 2013
 
LOUISVILLE -7.5
CINCINNATI
 
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 7, 2013
 
OKLAHOMA
OKLAHOMA ST -5
 
TEXAS
BAYLOR -5.5
 
 
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 14, 2013
 
NAVY -10
ARMY                   @ PHILADELPHIA, PA
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Written by Clay Travis

OutKick founder, host and author. He's presently banned from appearing on both CNN and ESPN because he’s too honest for both.