Vegas top 10

Vegas is a town synonymous with impulsive decision making. Whether it’s excessive food or alcohol consumption, an abundance of unnecessary exposed skin (this applies to guys as well), or a 12-hour blackjack session, what happens here is rarely reality anywhere else.  However, there’s one aspect of the casino business that the entire country should buy into as it pertains to Vegas; perception of the national sports landscape.  Nowhere else will you find a more objective group of individuals responsible for creating proper valuations of teams. The amount hours and dedication put into the pointspread is why we should turn to the oddsmaking fraternity to better understand exactly what teams are worthy of inclusion in college football’s top 10 after 3+ weeks of action.

Fans will inevitably be offended (not quite like reading Clay’s columns but I digress) when they don’t see their favorite team with the same ranking in the Vegas poll as the media has bestowed upon them.  On second thought, the SEC readership will actually embrace our top 10 above the AP and Coaches poll because there’s such strong conference representation atop the leaderboard.  When monitoring how Vegas ranks the field, understand objectivity is paramount for oddsmakers setting pointspreads on every single game.  When mistakes are made by not pricing teams correctly, there’s millions of dollars lost whereas a journalist believing Ohio St is better than Texas A&M, LSU, Georgia, or South Carolina experiences no negative consequences for his incorrect assessment.
 

There are obvious discrepancies across the 4 polls but there is no disputing Alabama deserves top billing in all of them.  The perceived gap between Alabama and Oregon is closing for the general public however I remain steadfast in my belief that if the 2 teams do meet for the national championship, the extended layoff and coaching mismatch will end up cementing the Tide’s legacy as a college football dynasty with their 4th national championship in 5 years.  This week the Golden Nugget opened Alabama -3 (-120) vs Oregon for the potential showdown between the current #1 and #2.  If these teams don’t meet for the title, those bettors making the wager will have their ticket refunded.
 
After the consensus top 2, the landscape gets muddled depending on who you ask. AP pollsters have Clemson #3 although it might be safe to assume they’ll drop after last night’s lethargic performance in Raleigh while the coaches remain steadfast in believing Ohio St has a rightful claim to the 3 position.  More important than the AP and Coaches view of #3, there is complete agreement from the bettors and bookmakers on who the third best team in the country really is; Florida State.  LSU, Georgia, and Stanford fall into the next 3 spots as the 4-6 best teams although there is debate on how the teams should actually be ordered. Interestingly its starting at the 7 spot where the chasm created by the top 6 and everyone else widens before you get to Texas A&M, South Carolina, and Florida.  Without harping on Louisville yet again, you’ll notice they’re inconspicuously absent in the Advantage and Bettors poll whereas the Coaches and AP rank the Cardinals 6th and 7th respectively.  If we were to see Louisville matched up with Alabama for the national title, Alabama would open up as more than a 2 touchdown favorite.  Fans and the media drive the passion and pageantry of college football but I still wouldn’t let them to pick the 2 best teams worthy of playing for a national title if last year was any indication.  For the complete Vegas poll, click here.
 
Nick Saban to Texas?
 
We all know the rumor flying around the SEC right now is that Nick Saban will flirt with taking over the Longhorns when Mack Brown is relieved of his duties at the end of the year.  How confident are you in this scenario actually unfolding? You can now put your money where your mouth is thanks to oddsmakers at an offshore sportsbook called Sportsinteraction.  Their team set a price of 12-1 that Saban will be the next head coach in Austin.  Personally this price is a little low and despite me saying previously I made him a 6-1 shot, I’ll recant my statement and say somewhere in the 20 to 25-1 range feels like fair market value.  Thanks to all yall on twitter who shared your ideas about a correct price and led to this prop bet even being posted in the first place.
 
Looking Ahead
 
The LVH updates all of their Game of the Year college football lines throughout the season. Here’s the complete list of current numbers for the biggest games remaining on the college football slate this fall.  If you’re wondering what team has seen the biggest move in their games; look no further than the aforementioned burnt Orange of Texas who have experienced nearly a 9 pt dropoff in power ratings by the leading oddsmaker in the industry Kenny White.