Vegas Poll 6.0: Iron Bowl Edition

Another week in the books and another undefeated team goes by the wayside, this time the Baylor Bears.  The top of the Vegas poll remains largely unchanged albeit with some controversy from the casual fans confused by Oregon’s top 3 rank off a lethargic effort against Arizona.  Each week a team’s overall rating can only improve or decline a nominal amount based on one performance unless there’s a major injury. In the case of Georgia, the Bulldogs were the poll’s biggest decliner with Aaron Murray lost for the season to a torn ACL.  What is Murray’s value to the pointspread? Try a full touchdown for most oddsmakers.

No Missouri fans, you’re beloved Tigers aren’t in the top 10 yet but they’re getting closer every week. Mizzou saw their power number jump 1.5 pts (2 pts is the max we allow for one game) after a strong defensive showing coupled with offensive efficiency in James Franklin’s return against Ole Miss. The Tigers started the season with a 109 team rating and fell to a season low of 107.5 after beating Toledo early in the year. Current form has them rated 115.5 giving them their highest grade of the entire season headed into this week’s tilt against Texas A&M.  Every Tiger fan that watches Clay and I on FoxSports Live should feel relieved knowing I plan to pick against Mizzou again this week (spoiler alert) just so I don’t ruin the magical season y’all are compiling in Columbia.  At this point I think my season tally is 1-6 ATS in handicapping the Tigers meaning it might be time to admit our power rating on them is a bit off.  Looking ahead to the potential SEC championship game if Missouri wins this weekend; expect the Tigers to open up as a 11.5 point underdog assuming they draw Alabama from the West. 

Full Vegas Poll available here

Odds to win the BCS Title (courtesy of the LVH)

ALABAMA 10-11
OHIO ST 6
SOUTH CAROLINA 300
CLEMSON 300
OKLAHOMA ST 200
FLORIDA ST 6-5
MICHIGAN ST 200
BAYLOR 500
MISSOURI 20
AUBURN 12
 

THEN AND NOW: Iron Bowl Line

Every summer the LVH and Golden Nugget here in Las Vegas hang lines on some of college football’s biggest games months in advance. It’s always fascinating to see how the line moves during the course of the season as teams exceed expectations or in plenty of cases completely underwhelm.   Back in early July the Iron Bowl line opened Alabama -21.5 at LVH whereas now the price sits at -10.5 days before the SEC West showdown.  Here’s how the number adjusted during the regular season. 

Keep in mind Alabama’s power rating to start the year was 129 in our Vegas Poll compared to it’s current rating of 126. Auburn began the season at 109 before climbing to 113.5 after their first 11 games.  To the casual fan 10.5 may appear high but in my eyes it’s actually a few points short given the role public perception plays in a game of this magnitude. To give you better perspective on recent line history for this rivalry, here’s the list of pointspreads going all the way back to 2000.

 *all pointspreads courtesy of Phil Steele’s annual college football previews

Happy Thanksgiving to all of you loyal OKTC readers of our Las Vegas poll this fall. Yes, even to those Missouri and Ohio St fans that think everything I’ve done this football season is just to troll your beloved programs.