Vegas Poll 5.0: Then and Now

For the first time this season we have a bit more clarity in the chase for the BCS, unless you root for Ohio St. Alabama and Florida St appear poised to make it to college football’s biggest stage if they remain perfect.  A quick glance at both team’s schedules indicate they’ll be at least 14 pt favorites in every remaining game with the lone exception Alabama’s potential SEC title game match-up against South Carolina.  However, the casual observer will still be surprised to see Oregon, despite losing at Stanford, remaining in a flat footed tie with Alabama atop Florida St atop the Vegas poll.  Always remember oddsmakers don’t grade teams purely on wins or losses like the media so if you’re looking for our numbers to resemble the BCS, AP, or Coaches poll, you’ve come to the wrong spot.

When you work in a field that’s black and white relating to bets won or lost, realizing when you’re wrong allows you to react accordingly. For each of the last few week’s our poll has undervalued both Missouri and Auburn explaining why these teams have combined to go 16-3-1 against the spread.  Auburn cracks into the Vegas top 20 for the first time this season on the heels of a resounding win in Knoxville against Tennessee.  It comes as no surprise the general public again believes the opening price of -3 for this weekend’s game against UGA was a bit short (line now -4).  However, you can anticipate the professionals who trust their numbers will look to back UGA in this spot given almost 4 pts of perceived value and general sentiment that Auburn has overachieved all season meaning water will eventually reach it’s level.  Missouri worked their way into the top 25 as well after thrashing Kentucky but they enter a 2 game finishing kick posing major challenges on paper.  Gary Pinkel’s team will be listed as underdogs for their trip to the Grove and will follow that up in their season finale as a miniscule home underdog against Johnny Football as well.  Both Auburn and Missouri have lined the wallets of recreational bettors making it safe to assume they’ll view the next 2 games for each breed of Tiger with Gordon Gecko voices in their head stating “greed is good” when Vegas is slow to react.

(Video: Oddsmakers explain why Alabama and Oregon are still power rated as equals)

Then and Now

It’s always fascinating to see how much the landscape changes over the course of just 2 short months. Ask Florida fans if they envisioned fighting for bowl eligibility with only 3 games to go or the diehard Auburn faithful if they thought come November they’d be 2 wins away from playing for the conference title.  With so many marquee match-ups still left to play, here are the updated game of the year prices (courtesy of the LVH) from the beginning of the year and how they’ve moved.  Always remember when reviewing pointspreads and future lines team’s are never as good (or bad) as their last game…unless they’re the Purdue Boilermakers.