Vegas Poll 3.0 : Miami is Overrated

Another week has come and gone with 2 more national title contenders (err pretenders) falling by the wayside.  Unlike the BCS, AP, or Coaches variety, our Vegas Poll prides itself on maintaining status week over week and there was no major reshuffling required when Missouri and Texas Tech both went down Saturday.  Cue the dirges for the Miami Hurricanes, they’re next to face the firing squad this weekend as the nation’s most overrated team.

We all know (or should by now) the popularity polls play no role in how oddsmakers set lines for individual games. Miami, currently ranked 7 in the BCS, enters Saturday’s game as a 21.5 pt road underdog to Florida St making them the largest undefeated underdog in BCS history this late in the year. There are 26 teams in the country that would be favored this weekend over the supposedly 7th best team in the land. For those claiming Miami is deserving of their lofty post, show me a quality win beyond Florida, a game in which they were thoroughly dominated and maybe I’ll listen.  Before struggling to sneak by the college football powerhouse known as Wake Forest, Miami was listed as just a 14 pt underdog on the LVH’s Game of the Year lines for their trip to Tallahassee.  However, factor in recent struggles and injuries to key personnel combined with FSU’s dominance and you’ll understand why the price has ballooned 8 points in just one week.

Good teams obliterate lesser competition when given the chance.  The gap between Alabama, Oregon, and Florida St continues to narrow at the top while the trio distances themselves from everyone else. Current power numbers separate the 3 teams by a grand total of 2 points. Baylor sits in 4th, 2.5 points behind Florida St in that 2nd tier while continuing their full frontal assault on a power rating that’s climbed 11 points since the beginning of the season.  All the detractors asking me who the Bears have played need to save their breath. Baylor’s yardage differential indicates an elite football team doing damage every time they hit the field.  After trouncing Oklahoma on November 7th , most of the nation still skeptical of the Bears will finally believe in Art Briles.  One other major observation worth noting; the SEC remains home to 4 of the country’s 8 best football teams, not half bad when some experts try to call this a down year for the league.

 

  Vegas BCS AP Coaches
1 Alabama Alabama Alabama Alabama
2 Oregon Oregon Oregon Oregon
3 Florida St Florida St Florida St Florida St
4 Baylor Ohio St Ohio St Ohio St
5 Stanford Stanford Baylor Baylor 
6 LSU Baylor Stanford Miami FL
7 South Carolina Miami FL Miami FL Stanford
8 Texas A&M Clemson Auburn Clemson
9 Ohio St Missouri Clemson Oklahoma
10 Wisconsin Oklahoma Missouri Missouri
         
  Notable Absences      
26 Auburn      
T-27 Miami FL      
T-31 Missouri      

For complete top 25 poll click here
 

The popularity poll curious index honoree this week is the Auburn Tigers.  I’m still trying to make sense of how this team has climbed into the top 8 while never moving past #25 in the eyes of most oddsmakers.  I won’t go as far as putting them on upset alert this weekend but fans thinking a win in Fayetteville is a foregone conclusion may be in for a surprise.  Keep in mind Auburn will open as less than a field goal favorite against Tennessee, right around a PICK’EM against UGA, and a 2 touchdown underdog when they host Alabama making their final stretch rather daunting  I see this team finishing the year 9-3 and any rational Tiger fan would have taken that final tally if offered before the season started.  

 

Written by Clay Travis

OutKick founder, host and author. He's presently banned from appearing on both CNN and ESPN because he’s too honest for both.

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