Vegas Bracketology 3.0

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We’re 12 days from the biggest cluser of the entire college basketball season, officially referred to as selection Sunday.  Like physics, each action in college basketball is part of a causal relationship that comes with an equal and opposite reaction. Our field of 68 doesn’t rank teams based solely on their wins but rather by power potential derived from a blend of math metrics, overall performance, and relative strength of opponent.  You’ll see with our updated rankings the team now being called America’s #1 actually DROPPED in our poll this week because their resume doesn’t appear nearly as strong now as it did in Vegas Bracketology 2.0.

Last week top 4 overall seeds: Indiana, Florida, Gonzaga, Duke
This week top 4 overall seeds: Indiana, Florida, Louisville, Duke

Gonzaga is the head scratcher for the casual observer given the Zags finished the WCC regular season undefeated and did nothing but win down the stretch.  However, their body of work looks less and less impressive when wins over Illinois and Butler lose a bit of luster.  Louisville’s road win at Syracuse gave them a bump in the power category catapulting them past Duke onto the top line as the third overall seed. 

Michigan State, another curious case for most, is currently on a 3 game losing skid but still sees seeding improve from the last bracket. Fortunately for Sparty their losses at home vs Indiana, at Ohio State, and at Michigan don’t negatively impact the overall body of work because as each of those 3 teams continue to rack up big wins, the computer profile for the Spartans is positively impacted.

Kentucky fans…the national media may think you’re on the outside looking in however Vegas still shows you love as a 10 seed matching up against another blue blood program in North Carolina. Let’s be honest, we should only be so lucky to get this as the marquee first round matchup between 2 storied programs with decorated head coaches.

Despite Joe Lunardi designating Tennessee his last team in, their 2nd loss to SEC lightweight UGA moves them to 60 in our poll this week. Fortunately for Vols fans a road game at Auburn and a home date vs Mizzou, along with the conference tournament in Nashville, gives UT ample opportunity to play their way firmly into the mix.

Special thanks to our friends at Payneinsider for sharing their power numbers to help us round out the Vegas bracket.

(Please note this is the corrected version including OVC champion Belmont. Apologies to the OVC enthusiasts for their previous omission)

#1 Overall Seed: Indiana Region

(1) Indiana vs (16) Charleston Southern (Big South) / Southern (SWAC)
(2) Michigan St vs (15) Weber St (Big Sky)
(3) Wisconsin vs (14) Princeton (Ivy)
(4) Middle Tennessee St vs (13) Stony Brook (America East)
(5) Oklahoma St vs (12) Boise State
(6) Kansas St vs (11) UCLA
(7) New Mexico vs (10) Iowa
(8) Marquette vs (9) Missouri

#2 Overall Seed: Florida Region

(1) Florida vs (16) Long Beach St (Big West) / North Carolina Central (MEAC)
(2) Michigan vs (15) Iona (MAAC)
(3) Syracuse vs (14) Valparaiso (Horizon)
(4) Minnesota vs (13) Bucknell (Patriot)
(5) VCU vs (12) Akron
(6) Colorado St vs (11) Oregon
(7) St Louis vs (10) Cincinnati
(8) Virginia vs (9) Iowa St

#3 Overall Seed: Louisville Region

(1) Louisville vs (16) Robert Morris (NEC)
(2) Kansas vs (15) South Dakota St (Summit)
(3) Pittsburgh vs (14) Davidson (Southern)
(4) Creighton vs (13) California / Colorado
(5) Ohio St vs (12) Denver
(6) Wichita St vs (11) Illinois
(7) North Carolina vs (10) Kentucky
(8) San Diego St vs (9) Memphis

#4 Overall Seed: Duke Region

(1) Duke vs (16) Mercer (Atlantic Sun)
(2) Gonzaga vs (15) George Mason (CAA)
(3) Miami vs (14) Stephen F Austin (Southland)
(4) Georgetown vs (13) Lasalle / Stanford
(5) St Mary’s vs (12) Ole Miss
(6) Arizona vs (11) Notre Dame
(7) Belmont vs (10) North Carolina St
(8) UNLV vs (9) Oklahoma

POWER 68 (assumes tournament field without automatic qualifiers and teams being ineligible)

1 Indiana
2 Florida 
3 Louisville
4 Duke
5 Gonzaga
6 Kansas
7 Michigan 
8 Michigan State
9 Wisconsin
10 Syracuse
11 Pittsburgh
12 Miami
13 Georgetown
14 Creighton
15 Minnesota
16 Middle Tennessee St
17 Oklahoma
18 VCU
19 Ohio St
20 St Mary’s
21 Arizona
22 Wichita St
23 Colorado
24 Kansas St
25 New Mexico
26 St Louis
27 North Carolina
28 Belmont
30 San Diego St
31 Virginia
32 Marquette
33 Missouri
34 Iowa St
35 Memphis
36 Oklahoma
37 North Carolina St
38 Kentucky
39 Cincinnati
40 Iowa
42 Oregon
43 Illinois
44 Notre Dame
45 Ole Miss
46 Denver
47 Akron
48 Boise State
49 Stony Brook
50 Bucknell
51 California
52 Colorado
53 Lasalle 
54 Stanford
55 Stephen F Austin
56 Louisana Tech
57 Davidson
58 Maryland
59 Baylor
60 Tennessee 
61 Butler
62 Illinois State
63 Valparaiso
64 Southern Mississippi
65 North Dakota State
66 Detroit Mercy
67 BYU
68 Arkansas


Written by Clay Travis

Clay Travis is the founder of the fastest growing national multimedia platform, OutKick, that produces and distributes engaging content across sports and pop culture to millions of fans across the country. OutKick was created by Travis in 2011 and sold to the Fox Corporation in 2021.

One of the most electrifying and outspoken personalities in the industry, Travis hosts OutKick The Show where he provides his unfiltered opinion on the most compelling headlines throughout sports, culture, and politics. He also makes regular appearances on FOX News Media as a contributor providing analysis on a variety of subjects ranging from sports news to the cultural landscape. Throughout the college football season, Travis is on Big Noon Kickoff for Fox Sports breaking down the game and the latest storylines.

Additionally, Travis serves as a co-host of The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show, a three-hour conservative radio talk program syndicated across Premiere Networks radio stations nationwide.

Previously, he launched OutKick The Coverage on Fox Sports Radio that included interviews and listener interactions and was on Fox Sports Bet for four years. Additionally, Travis started an iHeartRadio Original Podcast called Wins & Losses that featured in-depth conversations with the biggest names in sports.

Travis is a graduate of George Washington University as well as Vanderbilt Law School. Based in Nashville, he is the author of Dixieland Delight, On Rocky Top, and Republicans Buy Sneakers Too.