Vegas’ Bracketology

Everyone in sports has an agenda. Fans see their teams and programs the way they want to see them. Reporters do whatever it takes to get the story. Major networks showcase franchises they know will get ratings. Seeding the NCAA tournament is no different; it’s an exercise with inherent bias using an imprecise “science” rewarding teams based on a list of arbitrary metrics more convoluted than quantum physics. There are only 2 factions of sports enthusiasts who benefit immensely from remaining impartial; bettors and oddsmakers. While the NCAA denies the existence of both given their strong stance against gambling (legal or otherwise), I’ll trust our power charts to seed the field of 68 over just about anyone associated with college basketball.

First things first: I don’t envy the job of the committee establishing the entire field when they haven’t watched nearly as much basketball as they should to warrant their position. I’d feel more comfortable if picking tournament worthy teams fell on the shoulders of college basketball journalists, bettors, and oddsmakers heavily invested in getting the process right.

After seeing the most prominent journalists in college hoops convene in Indianapolis to go through a mock selection process this past weekend, it prompted me to take my ratings (in collaboration with @Payneinsider ) and put forth our own version of bracketology.  Payne works closely with the sharpest sports bettors in the industry and it only made sense to gather another set of data points before releasing opening round matchups for the NCAA tournament. In building the bracket we didn’t worry about scheduling issues, conference affiliation, or the other nuances the real selection group has to deal with but we did pick the best field we could while including 31 conference champs and the 37 best eligible at large teams.

All lists by region follow the normal S-Curve in seeding the top #1 seed with the worst #2 seed etc on down the line. Make sure you’re sitting down with a stiff drink depending on your level of fanhood because this can be an eye opening experience compared to the mainstream matchuos every other bracketologist will feed you the next few weeks.

#1 Overall Seed: Florida Region

1) Florida vs 16) Robert Morris (NEC Champion) / Charleston Southern (Big South Champion)
2) Kansas vs 15) South Dakota St (Summit League Champion)
3) Michigan St vs 14) Weber St (Big Sky Champion)
4) VCU vs 13) Akron (MAC Champion)
5) Arizona vs 12) Oklahoma
6) Cincinnati vs 11) Stephen F. Austin (Southland Champion)
7) Iowa vs 10) Kentucky
8) Belmont vs 9) Iowa St

#2 Overall Seed: Indiana Region

1) Indiana vs 16) Southern (SWAC Champion) / Norfolk St (MEAC Champion)
2) Syracuse vs 15) Iona (MAAC Champion)
3) Miami vs 14) Stony Brook (America East Champion)
4) Creighton vs 13) BYU
5) Oklahoma St vs 12) North Carolina
6) St Mary’s vs 11) UCLA
7) New Mexico vs 10) UNLV
8) Baylor vs 9) Virginia

#3 Overall Seed: Gonzaga Region

1) Gonzaga vs 16) Long Beach St (Big West Champion)
2) Duke vs 15) Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun Champion)
3) Wisconsin vs 14) Bucknell (Patriot League Champion)
4) Colorado St vs 13) Notre Dame/Denver (WAC Champion)
5) Ohio St vs 12) St Louis
6) Georgetown vs 11) Oregon
7) San Diego St vs 10) Ole Miss
8) Missouri vs 9) Memphis

#4 Overall Seed: Michigan Region

1) Michigan vs 16) George Mason (Colonial Athletic Champion)
2) Louisville vs 15) Harvard (Ivy League Champion)
3) Pittsburgh vs 14) Davidson (Southern Conference Champion)
4) Minnesota vs 13) Butler/Maryland
5) Middle Tennessee St vs 12) Detroit Mercy (Horizon League Champion)
6) Wichita St vs 11) Colorado
7) Illinois vs 10) North Carolina St
8) Marquette vs 9) Kansas St
 

If there weren’t stipulations and the tournament was about picking the 68 best teams to compete for the national title, here’s how the teams would look ranked 1-68 by some of the sharpest power numbers you’ll find. There will always be discrepancies between bettors and oddsmakers as to the exact rank of teams.  Instead focus on the general range where a team lands and that gives you a complete look of how we view the best teams in the country.

Teams in bold are schools that wouldn’t make the regular field because they come from one bid leagues (NDSU) or lost their spot to smaller conference champions.