Value on Mets to Win Series Opener vs. San Francisco

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Mets vs. Giants, 9:45 ET

I am not a believer in either of these teams. I suppose there are fewer believers in the Giants anyway because the expectations for them are significantly lower than that of the Mets. However, San Francisco could at least compete for a Wild Card spot. Sadly, I think that’s the best hope for the Mets because I can’t see them beating the Braves for the division this season.

The Mets are one of the hotter teams in baseball right now. They’ve won six of the past seven contests. Sure, you might point out that they faced the Athletics, easily the worst team in baseball, but you still need to take care of business and they did. Then they faced the Dodgers and took two out of three from them. Maybe they are a better team than I give them credit for, and the 12-7 record would indicate I should start believing in them. One guy I do like that is on their squad is Kodai Senga, their newest pitcher, who signed in the offseason. He’s been solid for the Mets, but needs to get his control in order if he hopes to be a postseason starter like they want him to be. Senga has allowed six earned runs over 16 innings, in his most recent start, he allowed four earned runs over 4.2 innings. He should be able to manage the Giants lineup.

San Francisco is off to a tough start with a 6-11 record. I mentioned they should be able to compete for a Wild Card spot, and I do actually believe that. They won their game yesterday, but prior to that they lost five consecutive games to the Tigers and Marlins, that’s not the sign of a playoff team. They are also just 3-8 over their past 11 games. Their hitters aren’t hitting well, their defense doesn’t look good, and their pitching staff – a strong point of the squad from a couple of years ago – is looking quite tattered and torn. They are using Sean Manaea today. He has had some decent seasons, but he is a third starter at best. This year he has pitched 11.1 innings and allowed six earned runs. Three of them came in the two innings against the White Sox in a relief appearance. Outside of that, he has been decent enough, but inconsistent. Mets hitters have gone 15-for-45 against Manaea in his career.

I think we are getting good value on one team that is playing very well, the Mets, and one team that is stumbling. I don’t particularly like Sean Manaea. I am worried that Senga could be inconsistent since this will be just his fourth start of the season. I’m taking the Mets though because they are the better team at -115.

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Written by David Troy

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