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I’ve talked about trends and how we can keep rolling with them as long as possible. This is one I won’t get off until it ends. Then I’ll reevaluate it, until then, I’ll continue to circle this starter’s starts and see what the best bet available is.
There is no one in baseball, not Sandy Alcantara, Max Scherzer or Jacob deGrom, not Gerritt Cole, or even teammate Justin Verlander, that has been as consistent and good as Framber Valdez. Right now, Valdez is on a stretch of 21 consecutive quality starts. He is five away from tying deGrom’s record. Of course, there have been some issues where Valdez comes close to giving up that fourth run, but he has cleared the hurdles. He’s gone at least seven innings in four of his past five starts. August has also been his best month of the season. He has just a 1.98 ERA and has allowed just six earned runs in 27.1 innings. One cause of concern for me is that he is flirting a bit with disaster due to walks.
Dane Dunning is trying to put the Rangers in a spot to win against the dominant Valdez. Dunning has been solid at home this season, posting a 3.21 ERA, which is a full run better than his 4.19 overall ERA. It won’t be too shocking if Dunning puts up a good performance tonight as we have seen him go 11.2 innings in two starts against the Astros this season and he has allowed just two earned runs to them. As far as the current form, Dunning has been acceptable for sure. He put up a respectable five innings against the Rockies, and has only allowed five earned runs in the other 17.1 innings he’s had in August.
With the way both pitchers are throwing, I’m taking the under in the game. Valdez should extend his quality start streak, but I’m not sure the Astros will just come and dominate. While I think they win the game, I wouldn’t be surprised if it is a 3-2 win or 2-1 victory. So I won’t take the run line. I’ll take under 7.5 at -120.