Astros vs. Orioles, 7:05 ET
We played the first two games of this series, might as well play this one, right? Again, the Astros are pretty much set for the year and should probably be able to lock up the first seed for the American League Conference. The Orioles need these games just to get a shot at the playoffs. I think they are fighting a losing battle, but stranger things have happened.
It will be tough, though against Framber Valdez. He was able to get the monkey off his back with the 25th consecutive quality start and now he goes for 26 against the Orioles. Technically the most in a row is 26 games, which he can tie today. The record for most in one season is his already. I love the way he is tossing the ball right now. Doesn’t matter the situation, the environment, or anything else, he just goes out and doesn’t allow the other team to get much off of him. He has allowed runs though, so it isn’t like he was spotless or something. He hasn’t faced the Orioles during this stretch, but the hitters from Baltimore have seen a bit of success against him. It is an extremely limited sample size here, but six hits in 13 at-bats shouldn’t be ignored. Is his streak in jeopardy today?
The Orioles scratched the original starter in this one, Tyler Wells. Now they turn to Mike Baumann with what I have to imagine will be a bullpen game. That really doesn’t bode well for any team outside of the Rays who seem to build those into their schedule regularly. The Brewers do too, but the Orioles don’t have the same pen that either of those two have. Baumann has been okay at best over his last three appearances. He faced Toronto twice, once in a spot start when he went five innings and allowed three earned runs. The other appearance was a two-inning outing 11 days later and he allowed no runs in two innings. He then pitched against the Tigers three days later and allowed one run in three innings. Overall on the season, Baumann has only started one game, so this will be he second. He isn’t great in any situation.
The Orioles had a chance to win the series with Tyler Wells on the mound. Now, with Baumann, I really believe there is no shot. The Astros haven’t scored in the past 18 innings against the Orioles, that ends here. Valdez extends his streak, the Astros will annihilate the Orioles. I would be comfortable taking -2.5 here, but we are going to take the -1.5 officially at -115. There isn’t enough value on the -2.5, but I really think the Astros win this game by like six runs. That’s at +700 at Astros -6. It is completely absurd to play it, but for $10 or something, why the hell not? We are 11-4 over our last 15 plays we have a bit of money to be reckless with.
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