UNDER In Phillies Vs. Padres Game 1, NLDS Is The ‘Sharp’ Play

The 2022 National League Championship Series begins Tuesday when the 5-seed San Diego Padres host the 6-seed Philadelphia Phillies at Petco Park with the first pitch scheduled for 8:03 p.m. ET.

Philly upset the defending World Series champion Atlanta Braves 3-1 in their best-of-five NLDS. The Phillies outscored the Braves 24-13 in the series and Philly RF Bryce Harper smoked Atlanta. Harper had a .500/.529/1.063 slash line with 2 HRs, 3 doubles and 5 RBI.

San Diego won three straight in the NLDS to take down the 111-win Los Angeles Dodgers 3-1. The Padres lost Game 1 with starting RHP Mike Clevinger on the mound but won the following three while starting the top-three hurlers in their rotation.

The Phillies beat the Padres 4-3 in their regular-season series and Philly had a +6 run differential in those meetings (21-15).

My favorite look in Game 1 of the NLCS is the UNDER. Phillies-Padres scored 6 or fewer runs in five of their seven meetings this season and Petco Park is a notoriously pitcher-friendly venue.

Betting Details (DraftKings)

  • Moneyline: Phillies (+105), Padres (-125)
  • Run Line: Phillies +1.5 (-205), Padres -1.5 (+175)
  • Total (O/U) — 6.5 — O: -120, UNDER: +100

Both teams send out their ace Tuesday with the Phillies giving the ball to RHP Zack Wheeler (12-7, 2.82 ERA) and Padres starting RHP Yu Darvish (16-8, 3.10 ERA).

My first thought when handicapping Game 1 was “everyone is going to bet the Under”. However, to my surprise, nearly three-fourths of the action at DraftKings is on the Over, according to VSIN.

The market is higher on these lineups compared to their pitching staffs. I love the idea of fading the public with two of the best starters in baseball. More importantly, both pitchers are dialed in.

Phillies RHP Zack Wheeler (G Fiume/Getty Images)

Wheeler’s pitching peripherals are stronger than Darvish’s and Wheeler dominates the Padres. He has a 18/0 K/BB rate and 0 runs allowed in 14 2/3 innings pitched vs. San Diego in two starts since the beginning of last season.

Darvish is 6-1 in his last seven outings with a 2.45 ERA and six “quality starts”. Also, Darvish is 4-9 O/U in his 13 home starts this season and the Padres are 22-33-1 O/U at home against righties.

Finally, Petco Park allows the fewest runs per game due to park factor. The weather forecast is predicting an 8 mph wind blowing in from center-field, reducing the chances of home runs.

BET: UNDER 6.5 (+100) in Game 1 of NLCS

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Oct. 18 at 1:30 p.m. ET.

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Written by Geoff Clark

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