UNDER In Phillies Vs. Padres Game 1, NLDS Is The ‘Sharp’ Play

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The 2022 National League Championship Series begins Tuesday when the 5-seed San Diego Padres host the 6-seed Philadelphia Phillies at Petco Park with the first pitch scheduled for 8:03 p.m. ET.

Philly upset the defending World Series champion Atlanta Braves 3-1 in their best-of-five NLDS. The Phillies outscored the Braves 24-13 in the series and Philly RF Bryce Harper smoked Atlanta. Harper had a .500/.529/1.063 slash line with 2 HRs, 3 doubles and 5 RBI.

San Diego won three straight in the NLDS to take down the 111-win Los Angeles Dodgers 3-1. The Padres lost Game 1 with starting RHP Mike Clevinger on the mound but won the following three while starting the top-three hurlers in their rotation.

The Phillies beat the Padres 4-3 in their regular-season series and Philly had a +6 run differential in those meetings (21-15).

My favorite look in Game 1 of the NLCS is the UNDER. Phillies-Padres scored 6 or fewer runs in five of their seven meetings this season and Petco Park is a notoriously pitcher-friendly venue.

Betting Details (DraftKings)

  • Moneyline: Phillies (+105), Padres (-125)
  • Run Line: Phillies +1.5 (-205), Padres -1.5 (+175)
  • Total (O/U) — 6.5 — O: -120, UNDER: +100

Both teams send out their ace Tuesday with the Phillies giving the ball to RHP Zack Wheeler (12-7, 2.82 ERA) and Padres starting RHP Yu Darvish (16-8, 3.10 ERA).

My first thought when handicapping Game 1 was “everyone is going to bet the Under”. However, to my surprise, nearly three-fourths of the action at DraftKings is on the Over, according to VSIN.

The market is higher on these lineups compared to their pitching staffs. I love the idea of fading the public with two of the best starters in baseball. More importantly, both pitchers are dialed in.

Phillies RHP Zack Wheeler (G Fiume/Getty Images)

Wheeler’s pitching peripherals are stronger than Darvish’s and Wheeler dominates the Padres. He has a 18/0 K/BB rate and 0 runs allowed in 14 2/3 innings pitched vs. San Diego in two starts since the beginning of last season.

Darvish is 6-1 in his last seven outings with a 2.45 ERA and six “quality starts”. Also, Darvish is 4-9 O/U in his 13 home starts this season and the Padres are 22-33-1 O/U at home against righties.

Finally, Petco Park allows the fewest runs per game due to park factor. The weather forecast is predicting an 8 mph wind blowing in from center-field, reducing the chances of home runs.

BET: UNDER 6.5 (+100) in Game 1 of NLCS

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Oct. 18 at 1:30 p.m. ET.

Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.

Written by Geoff Clark

Geoff Clark serves as OutKick’s sports betting guru. As a writer and host of OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark, he dives deep into the sports betting landscape and welcomes an array of sports betting personalities on his show to handicap America’s biggest sporting events.

Previously, Clark was a writer/podcaster for USA TODAY's Sportsbook Wire website, handicapping all the major sports tentpoles with a major focus on the NFL, NBA and MLB.

Clark graduated from St. John University.

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