Two Strong Pitchers Will Lead to Under

Videos by OutKick

Cardinals vs. Brewers, 8:10 ET

This is one of those games that I think the books just have wrong. Yesterday was another one and I wrote about it – it was my only win on the day – a play on the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. When I saw this game, I thought the exact same thing that I did yesterday, that line is too high.

The Cardinals are my pick to win this division, and they really need to be able to knock around the Brewers if they plan to do that. I’ve always said, you can’t win a division in the first couple of weeks, but you can make it hard as hell on yourself to win it later on if you struggle. I won’t go so far to say you can lose it, because I’m sure some team out there has been under .500 through April or even May and made the playoffs. Anyway, that won’t be an issue with the Cardinals anyway. Their offense is just too good, and I think their pitching is good enough. Specifically, my guy Jack Flaherty. He takes the mound today against the division rivals, and he already gave us a nice and easy victory in the early season as he went five innings in his first start of the season and allowed no runs. Now, he did walk seven hitters which is a huge concern, but that should be an outlier not a normal issue. Brewers hitters only have four walks against him in their collective career with 13 hits in 60 at-bats.

On the other side of the diamond lurks the Brewers and Brandon Woodruff. The Brewers are off to a hot start in on the season and as you’d expect, a lot of that is due to the pitching staff. As a team, they are at a 2.72 ERA and their only loss came in an Opening Day game against the Cubs. It wasn’t just their pitching staff that propelled them to a sweep of the Mets though. They allowed six runs all series, posting two shutouts, but their offense was able to score 26 runs in the three games series, scoring at least seven in all three matches. They’ve scored at least seven runs in four consecutive games. Woodruff had a very strong start to the season going six innings in his first outing and allowing just three hits and one earned run. Cardinals hitters have struggled in the past against Woodruff getting just 28 hits over 144 attempts.

This game screams under to me. I think Woodruff is pitching very well and has shown he can be very effective against St. Louis’s lineup. I also think Flaherty is a better pitcher than the books give him credit for. He may be able to hold the opponents down in this one. I’ll back the under 8.5 and think the line is too high.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024

Written by David Troy

Leave a Reply