After trying my hand at actually writing down my NFL betting picks for the first time, I think I’ve already gotten addicted to it. Wait, that might not be the best phrasing for this particular situation. Oh well, what’s done is done.
Anyways, here are a couple totals that I gave out on the OutKick Bets With Geoff Clark podcast this week.
Chargers/Falcons OVER 49.5
This total is way too low. Both teams have defenses that are below average, according to EPA per play. In fact, the Falcons have the league’s second-worst defense, ahead of only the Lions.
Atlanta has allowed 69 points over the past two weeks, including 34 against Carolina. And Justin Herbert is slightly better than PJ Walker.
On the other side, the Chargers allowed 37 points to Seattle last week. In fact, LA has only held one team under 24 points this season – and that was Denver. We don’t need to talk about how bad Denver’s offense is. Furthermore, that Denver game is the only one of the Chargers past four games that have gone under 50 total points. Both of the Falcons last two games have gone over 50 points and I don’t see it changing here.
LA Rams/TB Buccaneers UNDER 42.5
There’s not much to this handicap. Both the Bucs and the Rams have above-average defenses according to EPA/play and both have below-average offenses. I would go as far as to say that these are two completely broken offenses. Not only have the Bucs gone 6-2 to the under this season but they’ve had four games with 30 total points or fewer and the other two were both under 40. The Rams are also a massive under team this season, playing to a 5-2 record to the under. Both teams are in the Top 5 of total to the under, averaging 6.7 points under the total between them.
Both teams went over last week but it was mostly due to their opponents. San Francisco debuted their full Christian McCaffrey offense and scored 31 points. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens cooked Tampa for 27.
Prior to last week, the Rams hadn’t seen a game go Over 34 points since Week 2. Maybe the two Overs last week are pushing this line up, but it should be sitting closer to 40. This seems like a chalky play, but in reality it isn’t – for some reason, 61% of the bets are on the over, but a whopping 80% of the money is on the under. People love to bet the Over, especially in big games – and this is the only 4:25 game on Sunday, meaning it’s essentially a Primetime game in terms of number of eyeballs. We’ll fade the public here and take some value in a bloated total.
Follow Dan Zaksheske on Twitter: @OutkickDanZ