Two NBA Winning Wagers For Tuesday, November 29

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The NBA has opted for a lighter Tuesday slate. Instead, the Association is putting all its eggs into the NBA on TNT primetime doubleheader basket. I’m going to take a shot at both the Warriors-Mavericks and Clippers-Trail Blazers and give best bets for both.

Golden State Warriors (11-10) at Dallas Mavericks (9-10)

Don’t look now but the Warriors got it going. Over the past two weeks, Golden State is 5-2 straight up (SU) with a +4.2 non-garbage time net rating (nRTG) — ranked seventh — and 4-3 against the spread (ATS), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). These numbers are actually misleading.

The Dubs lost by 55 to the New Orleans Pelicans Nov. 21 when they rested their championship core: Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green. In Golden State’s other loss in the past two weeks — 130-119 at the Phoenix Suns — Curry scored a season-high 50 points on 60.7% shooting.

Aside from that outlier performance, the Warriors are cruising. Dallas is on the struggle bus. The Mavs are 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS with a +0.3 non-garbage time nRTG (19th) and a -4.3 ATS margin (25th) in the last 14 days, per CTG.

Dallas Mavericks All-Star Luka Doncic backs down Golden State Warriors PG Steph Curry during the 2022 NBA Playoffs Western Conference Finals at the American Airlines Center in Dallas.
Dallas Mavericks All-Star Luka Doncic backs down Golden State Warriors PG Steph Curry during the 2022 NBA Playoffs Western Conference Finals at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. (Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images)

My biggest factor in this Warriors-Mavericks handicap is Golden State’s edge from behind the arc. The Dubs have a net +4.2% effective field goal shooting and the Mavs have a +0.7% net eFG%. These teams are first (Golden State) and second (Dallas) in 3-point attempt rate (3PAr).

But, the Warriors contest the second-most 3-point attempts per game and the Mavericks contest the third-fewest 3-point attempts per game. In fact, Golden State is third in 3-point shooting and Dallas is 24th in defensive 3-point shooting.

NBA Best Bet #1: Warriors -125 ML at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to -140 before laying as much as -3 with Golden State

The Golden State Warriors' odds at the Dallas Mavericks from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, November 29th at 11:40 a.m. ET.
The Golden State Warriors’ odds at the Dallas Mavericks from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, November 29th at 11:40 a.m. ET.

Los Angeles Clippers (12-9) at Portland Trail Blazers (11-9)

First of all, there’s been too much line movement off the Clippers-Trail Blazers opener. Portland’s look-ahead line was -2 and has been steamed up to -3.5, even -4 at some sportsbooks, despite no new news.

Clippers All-Stars Paul George and Kawhi Leonard have both been ruled out but that’s been known. The Trail Blazers will also be without All-Star Damian Lillard and the Clippers have a lot more depth.

LA is fourth in bench points per game (40.4 PPG) and Portland is dead-last (14.6). The major reason is Clippers coach Ty Lue is one of the best in the league. LA has a slightly better non-garbage time nRTG even though PG and Kawhi have both missed a lot of action.

Further proof of Lue’s awesomeness is how he’s handled forward Norman Powell. The Clippers had Powell in the starting five at the beginning of the season. But, Lue moved Powell to the bench where he has flourished.

LA Clippers wing Norman Powell celebrates a 3-point shot against the Indiana Pacers at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.
LA Clippers wing Norman Powell celebrates a 3-point shot against the Indiana Pacers at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. (Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

Powell’s points (15.3-9.8 PPG), true shooting rate (60.1-42.4%), usage rate (25.0-23.9%), and offensive rating (113-72) are all better as a reserve compared to as a starter.

The Clippers are the better 3-point team and keep opponents off the charity stripe. LA has a +3.5% net eFG% and Portland has a -0.02% net eFG%. The Trail Blazers have the highest offensive FT/FGA rate in the NBA.

However, the Clippers have the third-best defensive FT/FGA rate, and Portland’s offensive FT/FGA rate drops by 8.8% when Lillard is off the floor, per CTG.

The Trail Blazers have the worst defensive shot quality allowed and rank 22nd in non-garbage time defensive rating, according to CTG. The Clippers are 8-4 SU vs. bottom-10 defenses with a +2.5 non-garbage time nRTG.

LA on the other hand is second in non-garbage time defensive rating. Portland is 4-4 SU with a -7.3 non-garbage time nRTG (24th) vs. top-10 defenses, per CTG.

NBA Best Bet #2: Clippers +3.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, down to +2.5

The Los Angeles Clippers' odds at the Portland Trail Blazers from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, November 29th at 1:00 p.m. ET.
The Los Angeles Clippers’ odds at the Portland Trail Blazers from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, November 29th at 1:00 p.m. ET.

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Written by Geoff Clark

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