Two NBA Winning Wagers for Tuesday, Nov. 1

The NBA takes center stage in the sports world Tuesday now that football has the next couple of days off. It’s a 4-game slate in the Association Tuesday featuring an NBA on TNT primetime doubleheader.

Below, I’ll make cases for why you should bet on the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Minnesota Timberwolves, both plus the points.

Orlando Magic (1-6) at Oklahoma City Thunder (3-3)

Orlando rolls into the Paycom Center for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off vs. OKC. Magic-Thunder is a matchup between two teams that will probably be tanking at the end of the season.

But, until the Thunder decides to play their G-League team, OKC has the more talented side considering Orlando’s cluster injuries to the backcourt.

Betting Details (DraftKings)

  • Moneyline (ML): Magic (+135), Thunder (-155)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Magic +3 (-110), THUNDER -3 (-110)
  • Total (O/U) — 217.5 — O: -110, U: -110

This is a ‘better spot’ for the Thunder

OKC is 5-1 straight up (SU) and ATS as favorites since 2020 and covered in seven of its last eight meetings with Orlando. Also, the Thunder 12-4 ATS with 2-3 days off with a +4.4 ATS margin since the beginning of last season.

OKC has an edge in the ball-security department.

The Thunder have the 2nd-best non-garbage time defensive turnover rate (TOV%) and the Magic are 20th in non-garbage time offensive TOV%, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Oklahoma City Thunder G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander handles the ball against the Los Angeles Clippers at Paycom Arena in Oklahoma City.
Oklahoma City Thunder G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander handles the ball against the Los Angeles Clippers at Paycom Arena in Oklahoma City. (Zach Beeker/NBAE via Getty Images)

OKC scores the 2nd-most points off of turnovers per game and allows the 2nd-fewest points off of turnovers per game. Orlando scores the fewest points off of turnovers per game.

Thunder is stacked with ball handlers and quick guards.

OKC PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA) is scoring 31.0 PPG on 49.6% shooting and is in the 99th percentile of point guards in the NBA in on/off non-garbage time net rating (nRTG), per CTG.

SGA and Thunder SG Lugentz Dort would be solid rotation players on any playoff team. The Magic don’t have a single one of those players on their roster.

Finally, Orlando doesn’t have a true point guard in its starting 5. Magic wing Terrence Ross is the smallest player in Orlando’s starting lineup and he measures 6’6”.

NBA Best Bet #1: Thunder -3 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to -4

The Oklahoma City Thunder's odds vs. the Orlando Magic from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, November 1st at 8:45 a.m. ET.
The Oklahoma City Thunder’s odds vs. the Orlando Magic from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, November 1st at 8:45 a.m. ET.

Minnesota Timberwolves (4-3) at Phoenix Suns (5-1)

Phoenix hosts Minnesota at the Footprint Center Tuesday for a 10 p.m. ET tip-off and the Suns will be without starting big Deandre Ayton who’s dealing with a sprained ankle.

Betting Details (DraftKings)

  • Moneyline (ML): TIMBERWOLVES (+150), Suns (-175)
  • Against the spread (ATS): TIMBERWOLVES +4 (-110), Suns -4 (-110)
  • Total (O/U) — 228 — O: -110, U: -110

No Ayton

The T-Wolves got bigger this offseason by trading for C Rudy Gobert and Minnesota’s size edge in the frontcourt is the difference-maker in this game.

Especially now that Suns PG Chris Paul looks like he’s finally slowing down. Vintage CP3 could make up for the loss of a big but not in this spot.

Ayton is Phoenix’s 2nd-leading scorer (15.4 PPG) and leading rebounder (8.2 rebounds per game) with the 2nd-highest usage rate among the Suns’ starters.

Phoenix Suns Deandre Ayton going up for a shot against Minnesota Timberwolves big Karl-Anthony Towns at Target Center in Minneapolis.
Phoenix Suns Deandre Ayton going up for a shot against Minnesota Timberwolves big Karl-Anthony Towns at Target Center in Minneapolis. (Jordan Johnson/NBAE via Getty Images)

Minnesota attempts the 3rd-highest volume of field goals at the rim and scores the 4th-most paint PPG. Ayton’s injury makes it easier for the T-Wolves to dominate the interior Tuesday.

T-Wolves All-Star big Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 24.2 PPG on 62.2% true shooting (.513/.412/.852) with 11.5 rebounds and a +14 nRTG in 22 career appearances vs. Phoenix.

Furthermore, DraftKings lowered Phoenix from a 5-point favorite on the opener down to -4 following the Ayton injury confirmation despite a vast majority of the early money coming on Phoenix.

My issue here is the adjustment isn’t big enough given Minnesota’s size.

NBA Best Bet #2: Timberwolves +4 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, down to +3

The Minnesota Timberwolves’ odds vs. the Phoenix Suns courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, November 1st as of 9:10 a.m. ET.

FOLLOW GEOFF ON TWITTER: @Geoffery_Clark

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Written by Geoff Clark

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