Two NBA Gambling Locks For Oct. 21: Raptors, Trail Blazers ATS
The Friday, Oct. 21 slate of NBA action is highlighted by two rematches from last year's postseason when the Boston Celtics visit the Miami Heat and the Denver Nuggets host the Golden State Warriors.
However, neither of my NBA best bets for Friday are in these two games. Instead, I'm fading the Brooklyn Nets' broken offense and the phony Phoenix Suns.
Below, I'll break down my favorite matchups in today's NBA card and, ideally, give out a couple of winners.
Toronto Raptors +2.5 (-110) at Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn hosts Toronto at Barclays Center for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off and the pro-Raptors side of this handicap writes itself.
Toronto is taking "sharp" action, Brooklyn is a bad bet at home and the Raptors have a few stylistic edges in their favor.
Per VSIN, nearly 60% of the bets placed are at DraftKings Sportsbook on the Nets but roughly 85% of the cash is on the Raptors.
This is called a Pros vs. Joe's game because the cash column typically represents "sharp" money whereas the tickets column is the public.
Styles make fights
Furthermore, Brooklyn struggles against tough defenses and Toronto, in particular, does a good defending what the Nets do frequently.
The Nets were 10-18 overall last season vs. teams in the top 10 of adjusted defensive efficiency with a -4.0 against the spread (ATS) differential, per CleaningTheGlass.com.
Both teams play a ton of iso-ball but the Raptors play better 1-on-1 defense. In fact, Brooklyn and Toronto played the 1st- and 2nd-highest frequency of isolation offense last season.
The Nets were 20th in defensive efficiency vs. iso-ball in 2021-22 and the Raptors ranked 4th. Toronto has three above-average wing defenders to throw at the Nets' Kevin Durant (forwards Pascal Siakam, Scottie Barnes, and OG Anunoby).
Also, Raptors PG Fred VanVleet is an underrated, handsy defender who can apply ball pressure on Nets guards Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons.
In fact, Toronto plays some of the most aggressive defense in the NBA and is a bad matchup for a Brooklyn team that lacks continuity and on-court leadership.
Lastly, the Nets are terrible at home. Brooklyn is an NBA-worst 23-46-1 ATS as home favorites with a -4.2 ATS differential since KD and Kyrie joined the Nets in 2020.
NBA Best Bet #1: Raptors +2.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, down to +1.5
Toronto Raptors' odds from DraftKings Sportsbook vs. the Brooklyn Nets as of Friday, Oct. 21 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Phoenix Suns at Portland Trail Blazers +5 (-110)
Portland hosts Phoenix at the Moda Center for its home opener with a 10 p.m. ET tip-off. I'm looking to fade the Suns after their come-from-behind home victory in a revenge spot against the Dallas Mavericks in their 1st game.
The Suns rallied back from a 22-point deficit to beat the Mavs 107-105 Wednesday but failed to cover as 4-point home favorites. October struggles have been a trend for Phoenix: Suns are 1-5 ATS in October over the past two seasons with a -8.2 ATS differential.
Phoenix Point God, Chris Paul, looked mortal vs. Dallas, scoring just 6 points on 1-for-6 shooting. Also, the Trail Blazers will have a bounce-back season now that PG Damian Lillard is healthy.
The market is overlooking the return of Dame Time who's one of the most lethal scorers in the NBA. Also, Portland's supporting cast is underrated.
Portland Trail Blazers Damian Lillard gets introduced into the starting lineup against the Sacramento Kings. (Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images)
Trail Blazers' SG Anfernee Simons is an elite catch-and-shoot player who can pick up some of the ball-handling responsibility from Lillard. Portland's acquisition of F Jerami Grant this offseason added a legit starter to their wing.
Also, Phoenix's roster has gotten worse from last season and the market hasn't caught on. Or at least doesn't factor that into this matchup. Per VSIN, roughly 90% of the action at DraftKings is on the Suns.
Phoenix lost a little size when C JaVale McGee left in free agency and PF Jae Crowder's trade demand hurts the Suns' floor-spacing and perimeter defense. Suns F Cameron Johnson is a backup, not a starter, and was the only player in Phoenix's starting 5 with a negative +/- vs. the Mavs.
NBA Best Bet #2: Trail Blazers +5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, down to +4
Portland Trail Blazers' odds from DraftKings Sportsbook vs. the Phoenix Suns as of Friday, Oct. 21 at 11:30 a.m. ET.