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I complained about splitting recent best-bet daily doubles Tuesday then MLB showed me it could always be worse and I went 0-2. My 1st pick, the Guardians, only lost 4-2 to the White Sox and Cleveland held a lead after six innings.
However, my 2nd pick, the Rays over the Blue Jays in the 1st-5 Innings was atrocious. Not only was Toronto up 10-1 on Tampa Bay after the 1st five innings but the Blue Jays ended up beating the Rays 20-1.
An OutKick reader talked smack after my garbage pick of Tampa, which was justified. But, if you think that’s going to stop me from betting on the MLB, you’re crazy. A 20-1 loss hurts as much as a 2-1 loss.
I’m dusting myself off and winning the money back with two looks on Wednesday’s MLB card: A side in the Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves and the total in the New York Mets at the Chicago Cubs.
MLB Wednesday Wagers
- Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
New York Mets (25-24) at Chicago Cubs (21-26)
- First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET.
- Venue: Wrigley Field in Chicago.
- Series: Cubs lead 1-0.
First of all, the starting pitching matchup is Under-friendly. New York starting RHP Kodai Senga (4-2, 3.77 ERA) and Chicago starting RHP Marcus Stroman (3-4, 3.05 ERA) are a combined 6-12 Over/Under (O/U) this season.
The weather forecast is predicting nearly 20 mph winds blowing into the hitters’ faces from center field. Plus, the Cubs are 24th in flyball rate vs. right-handed pitching and the Mets are right behind them, according to FanGraphs.
Per StatFox.com, the home plate umpire for the Mets-Cubs meeting, Bill Miller, has umpired the highest rate of Unders (4-7 O/U) of any ump on MLB’s Wednesday card. Miller’s 3.10 ERA is the lowest of all umpires scheduled Wednesday.
We are getting late to the party on the UNDER 7 (-120) for Mets-Cubs but at least we know it’s the sharp side. This game opened with an 8.5-run total but has dropped to 7-flat at DraftKings despite nearly 90% of the action being on the Over, per VSIN.
MLB Wager #1: UNDER 7 in Mets-Cubs (-120) at DraftKings
Los Angeles Dodgers (31-19) at Atlanta Braves (29-19)
- First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET.
- Venue: Truist Park in Atlanta.
- Series: Dodgers lead 2-0.
Atlanta’s Wednesday starter, RHP Bryce Elder (3-0, 2.06 ERA), is due for regression. Sure, Elder’s basic numbers are outstanding but his hard-hit rate is 49.3% and his exit velocity (EV) is 91.3 mph.
To put that into perspective, the MLB’s average hard-hit rate is 38.8% and the average EV is 88.2 mph. Elder ranks 153rd in Stuff+ (77) out of 156 starters with at least 20 innings, according to FanGraphs.
Furthermore, Elder grades in the 38th percentile or worse in expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, expected wOBA over ERA, K%, and fastball velocity, per Statcast.
However, Dodgers starting RHP Tony Gonsolin (2-1, 1.13 ERA) ranks 35th in Stuff+ (105). Gonsolin’s expected slash line is in the 69th percentile or better and his hard-hit rate is 36.4%.
Also, Gonsolin is pitching on four days of rest, which is his most productive rest split. In his career, Gonsolin is 10-1 overall on four rest days with a 1.28 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and 3.76 K/BB rate.
Finally, LAD’s lineup rakes right-handed pitching while Atlanta’s lineup is around league average. The Dodgers out-rank the Braves vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+ (115-97), wOBA (.339-.318), ISO (.214-.174), and BB/K rate (0.49-0.41).
MLB Wager #2: Dodgers (+100) at DraftKings
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