Two Great Pitchers Will Lead to Under Tonight in Los Angeles

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers, 10:10 ET

I'm not going to harp about how good last season's baseball picks went for my Outkick articles - but for context, I was 70 games over .500. I bring that up because I also want to share this: Last season, I started Opening Day with a terrible 0-3 record. It was really bad. Today could be the exact same. Who knows, this year I could be 70 games under .500. I don't expect that to happen and am very excited to see how this year goes.

The Diamondbacks are a team I made a lot of money on last season. Part of that success came from me relying on two of their pitchers - Merrill Kelly, and tonight's starter, Zac Gallen. The Diamondbacks are not a good team, but they are competitive. They were at least in consideration for the Wild Card last season - they didn't come particularly close, but they made a run at it. Drawing the Dodgers for the first three games of the season is a rough way to start this year's campaign. Gallen was eighth in the National League with a 2.54 ERA last season and was second in WHIP. This was his most complete campaign, but he was solid in 2020 and 2019 as well. Even 2021 was okay, but not great. He was outstanding against the Dodgers last season, posting a 0.64 ERA, allowing just one earned run over 14 innings. In fact, he pitched better against Los Angeles than any other team he faced last year. I'm hoping his solid 2022 could spill over into 2023 and he starts the year strong.

For all of the hype that the Dodgers get, somehow arguably the best pitcher on their roster flies under the radar a bit. Yes, they've had guys like Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, and other big names over the years, but their best pitcher right now is probably Julio Urias. In 2021, Urias was the league's only 20-game winner. While he wasn't quite as successful in the win column last year, he still won 17 games last year. He did improve his ERA quite a bit and posted a 2.16 ERA, but his strikeouts dropped by almost 30 which means more balls in play. That didn't make much of a difference though as hitters batted lower against him last year than any other year before. Urias was excellent against the Diamondbacks as well last season. He had two starts, going 11.1 innings and allowing just one earned run in that span. There really isn't even anyone on the Diamondbacks that I have a big concern of in terms of hitting against him.

This to me is a good opportunity for us to take the under 7.5 in the game. I don't expect either team to be able to put up a ton of runs against the other pitcher. It is possible that the first five under 3.5 is better to play, but that doesn't leave much room for error. I'll back the full game and hope that these pitchers are both in good form to start the season.

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