Geoff Clark
Videos by OutKick
Along with my MLB Donkey Parlay given out earlier today, I found some value in underdogs. Or at least I think I have. Perhaps I’m casting too wide of a net in baseball Tuesday.
In fact, I’m already about-facing on my ‘donkey parlay’ rationale. However, I like the prices for the ‘dogs in the Marlins-Phillies and Padres-Mets and I’ll explain why.
Miami Marlins (4-7) at Philadelphia Phillies (4-6), 6:40 p.m. ET
Philly crushed Miami 15-3 in the series opener Monday. The Phillies raked Marlins’ 2022 NL Cy Young winning RHP Sandy Alcantara for 9 ERs over 4 IP.
For the second game of this series, Miami starts LHP Jesus Luzardo vs. Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola. Luzardo is 1-0 with just 1 ER on a 15/5 K/BB rate vs. the Twins and Mets. Nola is 0-1 with 8 ERs and a 9/3 K/BB rate against the Yankees and Rangers.
Even though Nola has been one of the better starters in the NL over the past couple of seasons, he struggles vs. the Marlins. Nola is 4-6 straight up (SU) at home against Miami with a -34.6% return on investment (ROI).
Also, when teams lose 15-3 they generally use a bunch of relievers. But, the Marlins used just two pitchers in Monday’s loss to the Phillies. Granted, Miami’s bullpen has been awful through 11 games but so has Philly’s thus far.
There’s suspicious line movement for Marlins-Phillies. Per VSIN, more than 80% of the action at DraftKings Sportsbook is on Philly. But, the Phillies opened as -160 favorites and have been lowered to the current price of -145.
MLB ‘Dog #1: Marlins (+125) moneyline at DraftKings
San Diego Padres (6-4) at New York Mets (5-5), 7:10 p.m. ET
The Mets beat the Padres 5-0 in the series opener Monday as Max Scherzer and NYM’s bullpen shutdown San Diego’s lineup. The Padres give hard-throwing LHP Ryan Weathers the start Tuesday vs. Mets LHP David Peterson.
Weathers (0-0, 3.60 ERA) picked up a no-decision in his first start, which turned out to be a 5-4 win for San Diego over the D-Backs. Peterson (0-1, 6.00 ERA) pitched well in a 2-1 loss to the Marlins then got drilled in a 7-6 loss to the Brewers on Wednesday.
The bottom line is I’m much higher on Weathers than Peterson. Weathers is the No. 7 pick from the 2017 MLB draft and has nasty stuff. After one start in 2022, Weathers spent the year in the minors.
Through his first start in 2023, Weathers’ stuff looks better. His fastball velocity is 96.2 mph, up from 93.9 mph and his breaking stuff had more movement, per Statcast.
Also, San Diego’s lineup out-ranks NYM’s vs. left-handed pitching in wOBA, BB/K rate, and ISO. The Padres are 3-1 SU against lefty starters this season and the Mets are 2-3 SU.
Furthermore, San Diego is 10-7 SU as road underdogs vs. left-handed starts since the beginning of last season with a +17.9% ROI.
Finally, the Padres has better rested bullpen and sharper advanced stats through the 1st 10 games. San Diego’s bullpen has a better FIP, HR/9, K-BB%, and WAR, according to FanGraphs.
MLB ‘Dog #2: Padres (+120) moneyline at DraftKings
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