Twins At Plus Money Has Good Value

Twins vs. Braves, 7:20 ET

We had a decent enough weekend after a sweep yesterday. Even Saturday was fine overall as we went 2-1, but it basically found us breaking even. Now the shift to the work week is upon us and we see a new set of series starting. There really aren't too many games today, but I think there is some value on this game between the Braves and Twins, even if it is a bit risky.

The Twins are rocking back and forth between over and under .500 for the season. They are currently winners of four of their past five games, and they took two of three from the Tigers this past weekend. I don't really care much for the Twins offense, and even though they have a clear path to take the division that no one seems to want, they aren't running away with anything. I will give a tip of the cap to the Twins pitching staff as they boast a 3.66 ERA on the season. Their Ace, Sonny Gray, takes the ball for them tonight as they have to battle the dominant Braves. We did lose our last play on Gray, but it really wasn't his fault. I took the under for the game at 8.5, and thanks to extra innings it ended with 9 runs. Gray went five innings and allowed three earned runs. To be fully transparent, Gray was awesome in April, but May and June have seen him throw close to a 4-run ERA. He has been solid enough against the Braves - he has held them to 20 hits over 92 at-bats.

Spencer Strider takes on Sonny Gray and the Twins tonight in Atlanta. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

The Braves are the World Series favorites, and it really isn't a surprise as they are killing it in this first half of the season. There was a stretch where they were looking pretty bad during home games but that seems to have changed as they are now playing better at home and are 24-15 now. They've also won four of their past five games, but that feels more normal than the Twins doing it. The Braves have a unique combination of a very talented lineup that hits for average and power, and a solid pitching staff that can beat you both with power arms and pinpoint control. Their stud right-hander, Spencer Strider, takes the hill today to try and grab a win against the Twins and Gray. Strider was absolutely dominant last season, but this year he has had some issues, even if the Braves as a team are successful during his starts. This month, Strider has two quality starts and then two starts where he allowed at least five earned runs. The Braves have won all four of his games though. Strider has faced Twins hitters in just three at-bats and he has struck out the two batters three times.

There is really no question about which team is the better team in this matchup, it is the Braves. Their offense can beat anyone, and can usually do it with relative ease. I think 30 out of 30 clubs would also take Strider over Gray, but today the pricing is a bit off. Strider is beatable and not pitching consistently enough. Gray has been solid most of the year and while this is a risk, I'm taking the Twins through five innings at +175 as I think Gray can keep them in the lead or tied.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024