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Mets vs. Twins, 8:10 ET
Yesterday, I put out just one play on the diamond and it cashed. It was somewhat lucky as the Mariners won the game 1-0, but they scored the run in the second inning so they cashed the first five play, which is what I recommended. Today, we are shifting over to a matchup between the Mets and the Twins.
Baseball isn’t a sport where you can just roll out the best players and expect to win. Take a look at the Angels for an example of what I’m talking about. Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani are annual MVP candidates, but they don’t even make the playoffs. The Mets spent a lot of money to be successful this season and they were a complete disaster. They ended up trading away their two best pitchers, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, and they traded away some of their hitters as well. They pretty much said, we aren’t close enough to a playoff spot that it makes sense to keep paying everyone, so they got some assets and out of the spending for a few months. One guy who has been a bright spot for them, though is Kodai Senga. Senga is a solid starter and is having a nice campaign after coming over from Japan. If the Mets were having a good year, he probably would get more publicity as well. He has been worse on the road than in New York, but he also has three fewer starts on the road. This will be the first time Senga faces the Twins so he should have the edge.
At this point, you have to assume the Twins will make the playoffs. I’m not going to belabor the same information about how they were handed the division, and the AL Central is the worst in baseball. The fact is the Twins have a winning record and are doing enough to get their seat in the playoffs. Do I think they will get far? Not at all. But, they are at least putting together a respectable campaign. I’m not sure they have the hitting to advance, but I know they don’t have a strong enough pitching staff to get through even a three-game series. They had to take a shot on someone like Dallas Keuchel to get through the season. This will be Keuchel’s sixth start, and, tip of the cap to him as three of his previous starts he has gone at least five innings and allowed one or fewer earned runs. The other two starts… six runs in 1.2 innings, and five runs in 3.1 innings. That’s the Keuchel I’m familiar with from last season. He does have a solid enough track record against the Mets, but you need to remember that at one point he was a Cy Young winner. He’s faded over the years.
Speaking of faded, this play is a fade of Keuchel. Sure, the Mets have nothing to play for, but Senga is the better pitcher in this game. Senga also isn’t quite as good on the road, so we can fade him too. I’m taking the over for this game. I don’t have confidence in either pitcher or the bullpens. I’d be surprised if Keuchel allows only a few runs, and Senga should allow a few as well. I’ll take over 8.5 in this game.
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