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‘I’m not actually allowed to answer that, but a lot of people are going to be very happy.”
So said Donald Trump when pundits asked him whether he will run in 2024. According to Trump’s close confidants, President Joe Biden’s botched handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal has solidified Trump’s decision.
“‘The pace notably picked up in mid-August as Biden struggled to gain public approval for his handling of the U.S. exit from Afghanistan,’ Politico reports after speaking with people whom they described as Trump’s friends.
“‘[Biden] started bleeding, and Trump is like a shark. He smelled blood,’ said one confidante with whom Trump has recently spoken.”
While other “Trump insiders” say Trump planned to run in 2024 anyway, Biden is a far more vulnerable incumbent than he was in July.
I liken Biden to a low-level starting QB who has been asked merely not to lose games. His voters didn’t even ask him to win — just don’t lose badly. Biden could have run out the clock and remained viable for re-election by simply not dismantling the country. However, he couldn’t help himself. Biden is a game-managing QB who is now costing his team wins. Such QBs never last.
Biden is struggling across the board. His approval rating is down to 43%, with his support among independents tumbling to only 36%. Biden is not performing well in any category. Americans are worse off than they were before Biden took office. His actions spiked the gas prices, wrecked the Southern border, and allowed terrorists to take over Afghanistan. There is not a mark on Biden’s presidency worth promoting. That’s a first-year you hoped you never had to witness.
Furthermore, a recent Emerson poll found a potential Trump-Biden rematch in 2024 would favor Trump. That finding does not mean Trump would go into 2024 favored over Biden. He likely would not. However, given how notoriously poor Trump performs in national polls, Emerson’s finding shows how far Biden has already fallen.
Taking a step backward and looking at the Republican primary, I remain convinced Trump would win if he runs. A Republican candidate cannot earn the nomination without Trump’s base because there are not enough other Republican votes to offset them. Even Gov. Ron DeSantis would lack the support needed to topple Trump.
“A lot of people are going to be very happy,” Trump insists. Of course, some could take that to mean that Biden won’t last past 2024. That would make people happy, after all. But that’s not what Trump means. Notice he says “very happy.” He means himself.
Translation: Donald Trump plans to run for president in 2024. Biden’s horrific struggles have just made his decision easier.