Tread Cautious and Back Under in D’Backs vs. Fish

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Diamondbacks vs. Marlins, 6:40 ET

The one win I had yesterday came in a game I had very little interest in watching. That’s the remarkable part about gambling and why a lot of these leagues should embrace it. It gives people a reason to pay attention. Live betting can keep people invested as well. I have even less interest in the Diamondbacks and Marlins game today, but I have an angle that I like, so I’ll pay attention and you should too!

The Diamondbacks are off to a hot start and that isn’t a sentence that many people probably were expecting to write. But, here we are with an 8-5 record and the Diamondbacks get a chance to improve upon that with a trip down to Miami. They don’t have anything specific that is clicking for them but they do have timely hitting which is nice and has led to 61 runs. Their pitching staff, outside of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, hasn’t done much that is worth talking about. Today they send out Madison Bumgarner which would’ve meant something 10 years ago. Now, it means that there are going to be a lot of runs scored against him. He just hasn’t been a very good pitcher over the past couple of years. There are spurts of greatness but there are significantly more games where he gets rocked.

The Marlins aren’t a team you really think are going to score a lot of runs. They’ve played 13 this season and have only scored 41 runs for the year. That comes out to 3.15 runs per game. If you look at their last five games, they’ve scored three, eight, three, seven, two. So, it has been kind of wild and inconsistent. Today they are giving the ball over to Trevor Rogers, he’s a young lefty that has only pitched nine innings this season. He has gone 4.1 and 4.2 innings in his two games, allowed three earned runs in both and four hits and two walks in both. The stat lines for both games are remarkably similar and both were the same result, losses to the Mets. Diamondback hitters haven’t seen much of Rogers so he could be crafty and get them through the first three innings without allowing a run. But, I have to assume he is going to allow three runs in this game, at least.

Look, Bumgarner has been bad in the past, but he should be able to navigate this soft hitting Marlins team and Rogers should be able to stop the D’Backs. I’m going to take a shot at the under 5 through five innings. The total just is a hair too high. If it was four runs, I probably wouldn’t touch it.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024

Written by David Troy

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