For the casual sports fan, I think travel and rest are not evaluated much if they are going to look into a game. For a seasoned bettor, this is something you really need to consider. For example, the Padres, even on a luxury jet had to fly from Miami to San Diego yesterday. A three-hour time difference and a five-plus hour flight. Does that mean Washington has a chance today?
It isn’t really that I think they have a chance, but I do think the books are overvaluing Yu Darvish and the Padres. Before you stop reading here, my play is not the Nationals, but I don’t think the Padres are worth throwing in a parlay because they are heavy favorites. I also wouldn’t play the run line on a team that has struggled to score runs for the past week or so before yesterday. The prices are just too high.
The good news for the Padres is that Yu Darvish probably flew home earlier, and he has been spectacular at home this season. The other good news for them is that Washington had to fly yesterday from DC to San Diego, so the jet lag on both side should be real. The bad news is that the Nationals just beat the Padres five games ago, and who did they beat? Yu Darvish. As I mentioned, though, Darvish is a different pitcher in San Diego, for whatever reason. Having seen him in Chicago, he was very big on routines and comfort so maybe that is part of the issue.
The bad news for the Nationals, aside from the aforementioned travel is that Anibal Sanchez is pitching for them. He’s been terrible in his six starts for them. He’s allowed 24 earned runs in 30 innings. The Nationals have only won one game that Sanchez has started. That game was, of course, the other matchup with Darvish. Again, I’m not saying to play the Nationals, but the numbers on this game do show value on them. I just don’t think it cashes.
Instead, I think due to the travel, and the performance of Darvish, the Padres should win 5-1 or 6-0, something in that neighborhood. I’ll take the under 8 for the game at -112.