Geoff Clark
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I keep seesawing in the NBA after going 3-0 in written bets Wednesday followed by a disgraceful 0-3 performance Thursday. Regardless, the only way out is through and I got a few NBA looks in the Friday card.
First I’m heading to the City of Brotherly Love for the Portland Trail Blazers versus the Philadelphia 76ers then handicapping the Miami Heat hosting the Cleveland Cavaliers for a 2nd straight game.
BUYER BEWARE: We are in the NBA’s “load management” and “tanking” eras. It might be best to wait until the final injury reports are released before placing a bet.
Portland Trail Blazers (31-35) at Philadelphia 76ers (43-22), 7 p.m. ET
This mostly a gut-play because these teams are trending in the opposite direction entering Friday. Portland is 27th in net rating (nRTG) at -7.7 over the past five games and Philly is 3rd with a 9.1 nRTG over that stretch.
The Sixers beat the Trail Blazers 105-95 in Portland earlier this season. But, the 76ers could be road weary after completing a 5-game road trip Tuesday. Typically, NBA teams struggle in their 1st home game after a long road swing.
Also, the Trail Blazers have the best shot quality in the NBA, according to CleaningTheGlass.com, and they are 6th in wide-open 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr) since the All-Star break.
Over that span, the Sixers are 26th in defensive wide-open 3PAr allowed. “Wide-open 3s” are defined by a 3-point shooter having at least six feet of distance between them and the nearest defender.
With how hot Trail Blazers’ Damian Lillard has been over the past month or so combined with the fact that 76ers’ James Harden is allergic to defense makes me think Portland can keep it close Friday.
NBA Best Bet #1: Trail Blazers +8.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, down to +7.5
Cleveland Cavaliers (42-26) at Miami Heat (35-32), 8 p.m. ET
The Cavs beat the Heat 104-100 in Miami Wednesday in the frontend of their back-to-back (B2B). Cleveland is 2-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) vs. Miami this season.
The Heat have played in B2B against the same team six times already this season. Miami is 11-5 SU in those games and haven’t been swept in a B2B yet.
Heat coach Erik Spoelstra is one of the NBA’s best and I’m more confident in Spoelstra making adjustments over Cleveland coach J.B. Bickerstaff.
There is suspicious line movement in the betting market. Miami opened at +1.5 and is -2 (-115) at the time of writing despite the one-way betting traffic towards Cleveland.
Furthermore, the Cavaliers suck as a short underdog. Cleveland is 2-6 SU (-5.3 SU margin) and ATS (-3.4 ATS margin) when getting +3 or fewer points.
If Cavaliers-Heat gets into “clutch” time, give me Miami. “Clutch” are games within a 5-point margin inside five minutes of regulation. The Heat are 26-21 SU in those games with a +10.9 nRTG (ranked 4th) and the Cavs are 19-18 SU with a +0.8 nRTG (13th).
NBA Best Bet #1: Heat moneyline (-135) at DraftKings, up to -140 before laying up to -3 with Miami
You can listen to the audio versions of these handicaps on my NBA Hoops At Lunch show on the OutKick Bets Podcast feed.
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Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
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