Too Low of a Total in Tennessee

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Cowboys vs. Titans, 8:15 ET

Sometimes there are teams that you get a little excited about being correct about. For a while during this season, I was wrong about the Titans. I came into the year thinking they were going to be average at best and they reeled off some wins and made it look like they were at least legitimate playoff contenders. I thought the Cowboys would probably take the division, but I was wrong about that. At least they have a solid record that makes it a reasonable thought. Now we get the two teams squaring off on what could be a decent Thursday Night Football Game.

The Cowboys are 11-4 on the year and just 3-3 away from Dallas. They’ve won four of their past five games, but they were all wins at home. Now they head into Tennessee on short rest to play a struggling Titans team. They are likely more concerned about next week’s game against the Commanders, but I don’t expect them to look ahead either. Realistically, the Cowboys have already clinched a playoff spot so the only thing they can really change would be their seeding. So what do they have to play for? They want to secure a home-field game, especially with the 8-1 home record they have on the year. The other benefit here for the Cowboys is that there is no real injury concern on their side, but the same cannot be said for the Titans.

Let us start here: Ryan Tannehill is out for this game. When your starting quarterback goes down and it is a short week, there is little time to prepare the backup. Now, the backup, Malik Willis has gotten some reps this year but he hasn’t shown himself to be anything special yet. Derrick Henry is questionable for the game. I’d expect him to play, considering the Titans still need to win in order to get into the playoffs and without him, this will be a joke of a game for the Cowboys. The Cowboys also allow 130 yards to opposing running games so Henry should be getting the ball early and often. Dallas obviously knows what Tennessee wants to do so maybe they have more success and dare Willis to throw on them. If that’s the case and they stop the running game, this is over.

I like Dallas in this game, but covering 10 points on the road is a lot to ask even against a team that is really struggling in the Titans. If Henry is announced out, I have to imagine this goes up to 12 or something so if you think he will be out, grab the line now. I think this game probably goes over the 39.5 total though. Dallas could drop 40 on the Titans by themselves. The Titans should be able to find the end zone once or twice, even if it is in garbage time.

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Written by David Troy

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