Todd Fuhrman: 'Bet The Board' Top 10 Can't Bear The Bearcats
Shuffle up and deal was how we felt about last weekend's results as they pertained to our always fluid Bet the Board top 10. Florida's loss on the road to Texas A&M, while damning for some, wasn't cause for alarm on our end knowing the Aggies had seen pretty sharp money all week. The Gators fell just one spot flipping positions with the Fighting Irish but still very much within the top 10. North Carolina also snuck into the mix after steamrolling Virginia Tech with an offense that finally lived up to it all of the preseason hype.
We head to the AAC conference to see if the Bearcats of Cincinnati really deserve that #8 next to their name in the AP Poll while our underrated team is a repeat visitor and our Best Bet resides leads us back to the great state of Oklahoma as we look to continue a winning streak after cashing last week’s Red River Shootout over. Good luck this weekend with all your wagers!
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Bet the Board Top 10 Week 6:
1. Ohio State
2. Clemson
3. Alabama
4. Georgia
5. Notre Dame
6. Penn State
7. Florida
8. Wisconsin
9. North Carolina
10. BYU
Overrated: Cincinnati
Are they 3-0? Yes. Have they played one of the softest schedules in CFB thus far? Yes. Out of the 77 teams currently playing the Bearcats have played one of the 10 easiest slates taking on Austin Peay, Army, and USF. Despite the lackluster opponents, Cincinnati has only averaged 4.7 yards per play this season and is not even in the Top 70 in overall offensive efficiency. While they present a strong defensive front (allowed 17 points across 3 games), none of their opponents rank inside the Top 60 in offensive S+P ratings. This team simply has not played the quality of opponent but more importantly has lacked the dominant scorelines to earn a ranking as high as #8. The truth is the Bearcats might crack Our Top 25, but they’re certainly not in our Top 15.
Underrated: Oklahoma
It seems we’ve been all about the repeat visitors in the underrated portion this year as we just can't quit certain teams. While we understand that the W/L column is the be all end all in CFB, its a little insane to think that this Oklahoma team isn’t deserving of a Top 25 spot. Last week’s overtime win over Texas wasn’t the most convincing of performances in terms of final score but when we dig into that game, Oklahoma held this Texas team to 17 points until 4 minutes to go in the game, keeping them to just 5.4 yards per pass while generating consistent pressure on Ehlinger bringing him to the turf six times.
The Sooners have a Top 5 offense and the team survived what seemed like a mini-crisis in the middle of the Texas game as they made a QB switch during the 2nd quarter before Spencer Rattler eventually returned as the starter in the 2nd half. There is no way on planet Earth that 25 teams would be favored over Oklahoma on a neutral field; you can cut that number in half. The Sooners get to enjoy a bye week before they head on the road to take on TCU with eyes on getting back to the conference title game.
Best Bet: 148 Tulsa+3.5 (-110)
We know they’ve only played two games but Tulsa currently has the toughest SOS in the country with a very close loss to Oklahoma State and decent 34-26 win over UCF before their bye week. We discussed the shortcomings we see in Cincinnati above however let’s pivot to why the Golden Hurricanes are the side here. Tulsa has dominated in the trenches thus far, especially on the defensive side of the ball. They’ve held their opponents to 3.1 yards per carry and that’s a crucial advantage to have when facing an opponent such as Cincinnati whose offense starts with the ground game and has limited options in their passing attack. With what appears to be strong winds in store for this game, every little half point is even more valuable with a total that has been steamed down from 47.5 to 44. Grab 3 and “the hook” and lets ride the Golden Hurricanes at noon.
EDITOR'S NOTE: Tulsa vs Cincinnati was PPD, small replacement investment on Mississippi State +6
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