Todd Fuhrman: Bet the Board Says Texas Is Overrated

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For the first time all year, our Bet the Board Top 10 remain unchanged after Week 13.  Alabama, Clemson, and Notre Dame were all very impressive, winning their games by an average margin of 26 points and covering every number along the way.  Ohio State, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, and Wisconsin all had games postponed/canceled due to Covid so their power profiles remain unchanged.  There are not too many competitive games for any teams residing in our top 10 this week so we’ll see if these programs can take care of business as they continue making their case for the CFB Playoff during this rather unusual 2020 season.

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Bet the Board Top 10 Week 14:

1.) Alabama

2.) Clemson

3.) Ohio State

4.) Notre Dame

5.) Florida

6.) Oklahoma

7.) Georgia

8.) Cincinnati

9.) BYU

10.) Wisconsin

Overrated:  Texas

The Longhorns are fresh off of their “Senior Day” game against Iowa State; one in which they led the entire way before giving up a TD in the final two minutes to Brock Purdy and the Cyclones.  Where do we begin with Texas?  The defense has improved a bit since the beginning of the season but with S Caden Sterns declaring for the NFL draft this week, the secondary does take a major hit down the final stretch of the season.  The offensive line is in flux with redshirt junior Sam Cosmi declaring for the NFL draft as well while C Derek Kerstetter has a high ankle sprain that could leave him in a boot for several days leaving his status for this weekend’s game in question.  As for this weekend’s game, we’ll touch on that a little bit later. Bottom line: Texas is priced in the market like a Top 15 team who has either an elite offense or an elite defense while in reality the analytics say neither is true.

Underrated: Georgia

Georgia is 6-2 with blowout losses against the two best teams the SEC has to offer in Alabama and Florida.  The Florida loss should probably come with an asterisk next to it given how many defensive starters the Bulldogs were down but that’s neither here nor there at this point.  We have Kirby Smart’s squad as the No. 7 team in the country yet the national polls don’t seem to agree as they are currently No. 11 in the AP Poll.  Unlike Texas, Georgia is a team that is ELITE on one side of the ball with a top 5 defense in the country efficiency wise and an offense that’s found a recent spark.  Georgia has played the second toughest schedule in the country thus far and with the insertion of QB JT Daniels under center, we should see this offense continue to take steps forward.  After two games Daniels is 38/54 for 540 yards and 6 touchdowns with only one Interception.  Kirby has talked about the team’s confidence in JT as the signal caller and paired with a healthy defense, Georgia could rise to that next level.  While the market has moved UGA out to -35.5 from the opener of -32.5 against Vanderbilt just goes to show this team could have been a thorn in everyone’s side had they snuck into the playoff discussion.

Best Bet: 414 Kansas State +7.5 (-110)

Obviously we feel this Texas team is overrated and this offensive line situation should be a major concern for those considering backing the Longhorns.  Cosmi and Kertstetter are two of the best lineman on the team and even if Derek can go for Texas, he likely is going to be limited.  Kansas State’s strength comes along the defensive line with DL Wyatt Hubert and some unique defensive blitz schemes capable of causing some issues for opponents.  This is Kansas State’s Senior Day so while this season hasn’t been what Wildcats fans or players have envisioned, this is still a meaningful game for them.  RB Deuce Vaughn also may have an interest in proving Texas wrong; the diminutive back was not recruited by the Longhorns despite growing up right down the road from Austin.  This number opened up at Texas-8.5 ballooning out to -10 at one point.  Unfortunately those numbers were long gone before going to press but even at a TD or greater the ‘dog is live here and wouldn’t be shocked to see an outright upset in Manhattan.

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