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There’s just no way the betting line for the Tennessee Titans (0-1) at the Buffalo Bills (1-0) in Week 2’s Monday Night Football is right. This is the fifth straight season these teams have met and the underdogs and have and covered the first four.
In fact, the only time Titans-Bills was decided by more than seven points was when Tennessee beatdown Buffalo 42-16 in 2020. The bottom line here the Titans are underrated and there’s a little too much love for the Bills in the betting market.
Betting Deets (DraftKings)
- Moneyline: Titans (+340), Bills (-425)
- Against the spread (ATS): TITANS +10 (-110), Seahawks -10 (-110)
- Total (O/U) — 47.5 — O: – 110, U: -110
Sure, Tennessee snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in a 21-20 Week 1 home loss to the New York Giants. But, the Titans have won and covered in their last two meetings with the Bills from 2020-21, both as underdogs.
And while Buffalo beat the brakes off the reigning Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams 31-10 in NFL’s opening game. Buffalo going from a 7-point favorite on the preseason spread to the current number is too big of a line move.
Also, I predicted on the NFL Week 1 OutKick Bets podcast that the Titans would underwhelm in Week 1, the Bills would dominate the Rams and the betting market would overreact. That’s exactly what happened.
Furthermore, most of the sports betting space was down on the Titans entering the season. Those people got confirmation bias after Tennessee’s Week 1 performance. However, the Bills are the most bet team in Super Bowl futures. Buffalo looked worthy of that action after crushing L.A. last Thursday.
Don’t Sell Your Titans Stock Yet
I’m getting a Last Dance vibe from Titans QB Ryan Tannehill, RB Derrick Henry and LT Taylor Lewan. If Tennessee misses the playoffs this season they might be looking for work elsewhere.
The “no one believes in us” narrative is something that will motivate the Titans. Additionally, Tannehill is criminally underrated and he and Henry have taken turns balling the Bills up in their last two meetings.
Tannehill was fourth in success rate and sixth in expected points (EPA) added per play in Week 1. He had three touchdown passes and one rushing score in the Titans-Bills matchup in 2020. Whereas Henry ran for 143 yards on 20 carries with three touchdowns in last season’s Titans-Bills meeting.
Moreover, Tennessee’s success on the ground vs. Buffalo should continue Monday. The Bills were only 19th in run stop win rate vs. the Rams in Week 1, per ESPN. While the Titans were 10th in run block win rate.
Finally, Tennessee’s defense is underrated as well. The Titans have Pro Bowl-talent on all three levels of their defense. Such as Pro Football Focus’s highest-graded pass rusher in Week 1 — DE Jeffrey Simmons — and two-time All-Pro S Kevin Byard.
‘Good Spot’ For The Titans
Tennessee has trouble covering as big favorites in the Mike Vrabel era (est. 2018) but is a feisty underdog. The Titans are 14-9 ATS following a loss and 15-7 ATS as underdogs of 3.5 or more with a +7.9 ATS margin, which includes the playoffs.
On top of that, a vast majority of the betting market is on Buffalo Monday, according to VSIN. Since most sports bettors lose in this racket, it’s typically wise to get on the same side as the House. Especially in primetime games.
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and BET the TENNESSEE TITANS +10 (-110).
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