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The NBA is kind of mailing it in on Thursday, November 10th with a weak, four-game slate. We’ll break down the most intriguing matchup — the Philadelphia 76ers at the Atlanta Hawks — and then take a shot on a massive double-digit favorite in the Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets.
Philadelphia 76ers (5-6) at Atlanta Hawks (7-4)
The “reverse line movement” in the betting market jumps out because both teams’ offensive ratings are better than their defensive ratings.
This game opened with a 223-point opener and has been lowered to the current number (221.5) even though more than 60% of the bets placed at DraftKing Sportsbook are on the Over, per VSIN.
However, 76ers-Hawks have gone Under the total in seven straight meetings dating back to their second-round playoff series in 2021.
Also, Philly has played at the highest rate of Unders as a road underdog since the start of last season (6-15 Over/Under) with the lowest total margin (-5.2 O/U margin). Atlanta has an 8-14-1 O/U in home games since 2021 with a total of 220 or lower (-3.7 O/U margin).
Furthermore, neither team gets a lot of easy buckets. Both Philadelphia and Atlanta scores below-average in points off of turnovers, paint points, and second-chance points per game (PPG).
The Hawks have the worst shot selection in the NBA, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), but do a good job defending the 3-pointer. The Sixers have the eighth-highest 3-point attempt rate in the league and the Hawks have the fourth-best defensive effective field goal rate (eFG%).
Philadelphia plays at the second-slowest pace in the NBA and the offense is less efficient with James Harden off the floor. Harden is sidelined for the next couple of weeks with a foot injury.
Finally, Atlanta has one of the better defensive bigs in the NBA in C Clint Capela. He’s held Sixers big Joel Embiid under 20 points scored in three of their last four regular-season meetings.
NBA Best Bet #1: UNDER 221.5 (-110) 76ers-Hawks at DraftKings Sportsbook, down to 219.5
Charlotte Hornets (3-9) @ Miami Heat (4-7)
I’m laying the lumber with the Heat because the oddsmakers are begging for Hornets’ money by making them double-digit underdogs in this spot.
Miami is tied for the worst cover rate in the NBA (2-9 ATS with a -3.7 ATS margin) and Hornets-Heat has a low total of 214.
The public is taking the bait; per VSIN nearly two-thirds of the action at DraftKings Sportbook in this game is on Charlotte. But, the Heat are 4-0-1 ATS vs. the Hornets in their last five meetings including four double-digit victories.
Also, Miami crushes familiar opponents and Charlotte struggles on the second of back-to-backs. The Heat are 13-7-1 ATS vs. division foes since the start of last season (+5.4 ATS margin) and the Hornets are an NBA-worst 5-12 ATS on no rest over that span.
Lastly, Charlotte doesn’t have the perimeter shooting to stretch Miami’s defense. The Hornets are 25th in 3-point attempt rate with the second-worst eFG% in the Association. The Heat allow the fewest paint PPG and are seventh in 3-point shots contested per game.
NBA Best Bet #2: Heat -10.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to -11
PS: Player Prop in Hornets-Hawks
Hornets combo guard Terry Rozier has scored fewer than 20 points in five of his six games vs. the Heat since joining Charlotte in 2019.
He has the highest usage rate in the Hornets’ starting 5 so Miami knows it needs to key on Rozier. More importantly, Rozier has been inefficient and doesn’t get to the charity stripe.
According to CTG, Rozier grades in the 11th percentile in points per shot attempt. He ranks in the 13th percentile of combo guards on shooting fouls drawn percentage.
Also, if this Hornets-Heat game is as one-sided as the oddsmakers suggest, Charlotte might rest its starters in the fourth quarter.
NBA Best Bet #3: Hornets’ Terry Rozier UNDER 23.5 points (-120) at DraftKings Sportsbook
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