Three NBA Locks For Monday, November 14th

We are going with all road teams on our Monday bet slip for the NBA. Monday Night Football is the main attraction but consider adding the following NBA wagers to your sports betting account.

Phoenix Suns (8-4) at Miami Heat (6-7)

Miami is the right side when it hosts Phoenix at the FTX Arena for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off because the Heat are healthier and have a strength-on-weakness edge in drawing fouls. Plus the wiseguys are backing Miami.

Phoenix’s injury report is more worrisome

Chris Paul is listed as “questionable” on the injury report and he’s missed Phoenix’s last two games. Suns PF Cameron Johnson and SG Landry Shamet have been ruled out already.

Johnson has a +19.1 on/off net rating (nRTG), Shamet has a +5.8 on/off nRTG and CP3 has a +8.0 on/off nRTG, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), which removes garbage time from its stat tracking.

Heat SG Tyler Herro, and reigning Sixth Man of the Year, is “questionable” to play Monday. But, Herro has a -5.4 on/off nRTG, according to CTG.

Miami has a lot more depth in the backcourt. Phoenix could be without its floor general and will definitely be without a quality contributor in Johnson.

On top of that…

Heat are better at working the refs

Miami has much better free throw (FT) rates than Phoenix. The Heat are seventh in offensive FT rate and eighth in defensive FT rate, according to CTG. The Suns are 18th in offensive FT rate and 26th in defensive FT rate.

Miami Heat SF Jimmy Butler in action against the Toronto Raptors at FTX Arena in Miami.
Miami Heat SF Jimmy Butler is in action against the Toronto Raptors at FTX Arena in Miami. (Megan Briggs/Getty Images)

Heat All-Star Jimmy Butler is one of the best in the NBA at getting to the charity stripe. Butler’s aggressiveness should work in Miami’s favor in this matchup.

Speaking of which …

Miami has better wings

With all due respect to Suns All-Defense SF Mikal Bridges, who I like, he cannot check Butler. Butler is the best player on the floor, not Phoenix All-Star Devin Booker. He has a higher PER, Win Shares per 48, and box +/-.

Miami has a lot of length and athleticism to throw at Booker defensively. Heat All-Defensive big Bam Adebayo can defend all positions, Butler is an All-Defense guy himself, and F Caleb Martin is in the Heat’s starting 5 primarily for his defense.

‘Pros (Heat) vs. Joe’s (Suns) Game’

At the time of writing, there’s more money on the Heat at DraftKings Sportbook but more bets have been placed on the Suns, per VSIN.

Also, Pinnacle Sportsbook (Pinny) is the sharpest shop in the world because it books the biggest bets and Miami’s spread has the higher vig at Pinny.

NBA Best Bet #1: Heat -1.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to -2.5

The Miami Heat's odds vs. the Phoenix Suns from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, November 14th at 3:30 a.m. ET.
The Miami Heat’s odds vs. the Phoenix Suns from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, November 14th at 3:30 a.m. ET.

Toronto Raptors (7-7) at Detroit Pistons (3-11)

The Raptors are missing their two most important players when they visit the Pistons at Little Caesars Arena Monday for a 7 p.m. ET game.

Detroit is healthier

Granted, Pistons PG and second-leading scorer Cade Cunningham is sidelined with an injury but the Raptors have much bigger injury concerns.

Detroit had two rotational players return to action in back-to-back games. Pistons F Marvin Bagley III made his season debut at the Knicks Friday then SG Alec Burks the next night vs. the Celtics.

Toronto is missing its two leading scorers and assist men Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet. Both have already been ruled out for Monday’s game.

Toronto Raptors PG Fred VanVleet high-fives SF Pascal Siakam at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto.
Toronto Raptors PG Fred VanVleet high-fives SF Pascal Siakam at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto. (Vaughn Ridley/NBAE via Getty Images)

Siakam has a +14.8 on/off nRTG, according to CTG, and has missed the last five games. The Raptors are 2-3 overall and 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in those contests.

When both Siakam and VanVleet are out of the game, Toronto is scoring 5.9 fewer points per 100 possessions, which grades in the 12th percentile of all 5-man lineups, per CTG.

The Raptors’ 42.5% effective field goal shooting with Siakam and VanVleet off the floor ranks in the ZERO percentile of all 5-man lineups.

Professional bettors are pouncing on a banged-up Raptors squad also…

‘Sharp’ backing Pistons

As of 4 a.m. ET Monday morning, this was a Pros (Detroit) vs. Joe’s (Toronto) Game at Draftkings. Per VSIN, nearly 70% of the cash is on the Pistons and more than 60% of the bets are on the Raptors.

Essentially, square bettors see Detroit’s garbage record plus the Cunningham absence as an opportunity to fade the Pistons. But, pros know the losses of Siakam and VanVleet gives Detroit value in this spot.

Furthermore, the Pistons have one and covered six consecutive meetings vs. the Raptors over the past two seasons. Detroit has a +11 margin of victory and a +17.3 spread differential in those games.

Let’s follow the money with…

NBA Best Bet #2: Pistons +5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook and “sprinkle” on Detroit’s ML

The Detroit Pistons' odds vs. the Toronto Raptors from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, November 14th at 4:30 a.m. ET.
The Detroit Pistons’ odds vs. the Toronto Raptors from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, November 14th at 4:30 a.m. ET.

Atlanta Hawks (8-5) at Milwaukee Bucks (10-2)

The public probably won’t run out to bet the Under in Hawks-Bucks on a Monday in the NBA’s regular season. However, Atlanta is 2-9 Over/Under (O/U) in its last 11 games vs. teams with a winning record and Milwaukee is 4-8 O/U on the year.

Over the past two weeks, the Hawks are 23rd in adjusted offensive rating and the Bucks are 24th, per CTG. But, Milwaukee has the second-best defensive rating in the NBA over that span and the best this season.

Dig deeper into the advanced stats and you’ll feel better about the Under. These teams are both bottom-10 in true shooting percentage and FT/FGA rate and bottom-10 in defensive turnover rate.

Also, each team does a good job defending what the other likes to do. Atlanta attempts a majority of its shots in the mid-range while Milwaukee likes to chuck threes.

Atlanta Hawks big Onyeka Okongwu drives to the basket against the Milwaukee Bucks at State Farm Arena in Atlanta.
Atlanta Hawks big Onyeka Okongwu drives to the basket against the Milwaukee Bucks at State Farm Arena in Atlanta. (Adam Hagy/NBAE via Getty Images)

According to CTG, the Hawks are third in defensive 3-point shooting percentage and the Bucks are seventh in defensive field goal percentage vs. all mid-range shots.

It’ll be easier for Atlanta to defend Giannis because of Milwaukee’s injury woes. The Bucks will be without SF Khris Middleton (again) and PG Jrue Holiday Monday.

Finally, the Under is definitely the sharp side of the total. More money is on the Under at DraftKings whereas more bets are placed on the Over, per VSIN. Pinny dropped the Hawks-Bucks total to 223.5 when the consensus was 224 at the time of writing.

NBA Best Bet #3: UNDER 224 Hawks-Bucks (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, down to 222.5

The UNDER in Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, November 14th at 5 a.m. ET.
The UNDER in Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, November 14th at 5 a.m. ET.

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Written by Geoff Clark

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