Three Must-Bet NBA Games For Tuesday, January 24

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Injuries have slightly minimized an otherwise awesome Tuesday NBA card. We’ll break down one of the NBA on TNT primetime doubleheader games (Clippers-Lakers), along with the Bulls-Pacers, and Wizards-Mavericks.

You can listen to the audio versions of these handicaps on my recently launched NBA Hoops At Lunch show on the OutKick Bets Podcast feed Monday-Friday.

(Buyer beware: It’s the “load management” era in the NBA and random injury news. NBA players are sitting out more games. It would behoove you to wait until the final injury reports before betting.)

Chicago Bulls (22-24) at Indiana Pacers (23-25)

The Bulls won their third consecutive game Monday — 3-0 against the spread (ATS) — beating the Atlanta Hawks 111-100 at home.

Indiana are 0-7 straight up (SU) and 1-6 ATS entering this game, most recently losing 112-107 at the Phoenix Suns Saturday. The Pacers have the worst non-garbage time net rating (nRTG) at -16.9 and the worst ATS margin at -9.1 over that span.

Chicago smacked Indiana 124-109 in their first meeting this season on Oct. 26 when both teams were at full strength. The Bulls outscored the Pacers in three of the four quarters and outperformed them in three of the “four factors”.

Chicago Bulls wing Zach LaVine drives to the basket against Indiana Pacers wing Bennedict Mathurin at United Center in Chicago.
Chicago Bulls wing Zach LaVine drives to the basket against Indiana Pacers wing Bennedict Mathurin at United Center in Chicago. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images/NBA)

In this matchup, Pacers PG, and leading scorer, Tyrese Haliburton is out for this meeting with an injury. Haliburton has a +6.9 non-garbage time on/off nRTG, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

The Bulls are 7-3 SU and 7-2-1 ATS on the road in the second of a back-to-back (B2B) since 2021 and 3-0 ATS this season.

Chicago All-Star DeMar DeRozan has played in all eight of Chicago’s back-to-backs (B2B this season and Zach LaVine has played in seven of the eight.

NBA Best Bet #1: Bulls moneyline (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to -135 before laying up to -3 with Chicago

The Chicago Bulls at Indiana Pacers from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, Jan 24th at 11 a.m. ET.
The Chicago Bulls at Indiana Pacers from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, Jan 24th at 11 a.m. ET.

Washington Wizards (20-26) at Dallas Mavericks (25-23)

The first Wizards-Mavericks meeting went over the 209-point total in a Washington 113-105 home win on Nov. 10.

However, this total (225.5) is 16.5 points higher mostly based on Dallas’s 15-7 Over/Under (O/U) record at home and D.C.’s 9-2 O/U when playing on 2-3 days of rest. 

Also, the referee assignments for Wizards-Mavericks heavily favor an Under wager. The assigned officiated crew for this game has a combined 33-55 O/U record this season, which is 62.5% to the Under.

Crew chief Courtney Kirkland is 12-23 O/U and all three of the refs have officiated more Unders. Dallas with Luka Doncic are prolific at getting to the charity stripe. D.C. is ninth in defensive FT/FGA rate. 

Dallas Mavericks All-Star Luka Doncic shoots the ball during the game vs. the Washington Wizards at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC.
Dallas Mavericks All-Star Luka Doncic shoots the ball during the game vs. the Washington Wizards at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC. (Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images)

Dallas plays at the second-slowest pace in the NBA. The Mavs are dead-last in offensive rebounding rate and the Wizards are 22nd so there shouldn’t be a lot of putbacks or second-chance points.

Both do a good job closing out on 3-point shooters. The Wizards have the second-lowest wide-open 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr) allowed and the Mavs are 24th in that stat.

“Wide-open 3s” are defined by the 3-point shooter having at least six feet of distance from he and the nearest defender. D.C. has the fourth-best shot quality allowed on defense, according to CTG. 

NBA Best Bet #2: UNDER 225.5 in Wizards-Mavericks at DraftKings Sportsbook, down to 224.5

Odds for the UNDER in Washington Wizards at Dallas Mavericks from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, Jan 24th at 11 a.m. ET.
Odds for the UNDER in Washington Wizards at Dallas Mavericks from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, Jan 24th at 11 a.m. ET.

Los Angeles Clippers (25-24) at Los Angeles Lakers (22-25)

This should be your quarterly Clippers beat down of the Lakers that I’ve grown accustom to as a New York-transplant. Since moving to Los Angeles in November 2011, the Clippers are 33-7 SU and 27-13 ATS vs. the Lakers.

I don’t have much analysis besides this because frankly both teams have sucked this year. The Clippers were/are my preseason pick to win the title but have cost me a ton of money this season.

Also, Kawhi Leonard seemingly loves to piss in LeBron James‘ cornflakes. Leonard won the 2014 NBA Finals MVP when his San Antonio Spurs beat LeBron and the Miami Heat.

Kawhi’s teams are 10-5 SU vs. LeBron’s teams all-time in the regular season and 7-5 SU in the playoffs. He scores slightly more points per game than LeBron in their regular season meetings and shoots better from everywhere on the floor.

LeBron James plays defense on Kawhi Leonard at Crypto.Com Arena in Los Angeles, California.
LeBron James plays defense on Kawhi Leonard at Crypto.Com Arena in Los Angeles, California. (Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images/NBA)

Since Kawhi arrived in LA in 2019, the Clippers are 10-2 SU (+7.6 SU margin) and 10-2 ATS (+6.0 spread differential) vs. the Lakers.

Neither Kawhi nor and Paul George are in LAC’s projected starting 5. The Clippers score 12.2 more points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time when Kawhi is on the floor and 11.0 when George is in the game, per CTG.

LAL beats who they are supposed to beat and sucks vs. good teams. The Lakers are 14-4 ATS vs. teams with a losing record and 8-19-1 ATS vs. winning teams.

NBA Best Bet #3: Clippers -5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook

The Los Angeles Clippers' odds at Los Angeles Lakers from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, Jan 24th at 11 a.m. ET.
The Los Angeles Clippers’ odds at Los Angeles Lakers from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, Jan 24th at 11 a.m. ET.

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Written by Geoff Clark

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