These NFL Futures Have Value
Over the past two NFL games, we’ve cashed quite a few tickets – including +850, +190, and +500 winners. Good for us. Now, we are going to take a look at some more plays that have great value in hopes of a big pay day. These won’t be as immediate though. Now we are going to look at any futures that have value.
Let’s start with the obvious. Most of these awards are already locked up. Mac Jones will be the Offensive Rookie of the Year. Micah Parsons will be the Defensive Rookie of the Year. And, in the least surprising award of the season, Dak Prescott will win Comeback Player of the Year. So, what’s left?
One thing I want to note before we get into too many of these picks is this: betting $450 to win $100 on Mac Jones is not that bad of a bet. I’m not advising it, because there is no guarantee, and maybe the number comes down a bit. Nonetheless, I don’t feel there are too many other investments out there where you could gain roughly 25% in two months.
I think the MVP is Brady’s to lose. He’s been arguably the most reliable of all quarterbacks and players this year. He is still at plus money (+140 at the time of writing this) and that makes me willing to play this even for a small return. It is similar to the concept I laid out with Mac Jones above. You’ll get $140 for each $100 bill you lay out there. Are there any people who could beat him for it? Not really. Aaron Rodgers won last year and is not having as good of a year. Mahomes is having a good season but it really isn’t up to his normal standards. You have Brady with a really big lead, and the potential to win the rest of the games this season. If you can tie up the money for a few months, this is worth it.
Bill Belichick is the favorite at +150 for the NFL Coach of the Year. It is hard to argue with this one as well. Here’s the only stance I can have against this: we expect him and his team to be good. The Patriots being this good? I don’t think even the most staunch Pats supporters would’ve expected this. I think he wins the award unless people are sick of voting for him – after all even Michael Jordan didn’t win MVP every year. I’d actually argue that Matt Lefleur deserves it a bit more. He’s guided the Packers to a 9-3 record so far with a Quarterback who, before the season started, basically said this will be the last season he plays on the team. That’s just a wee bit of turmoil to deal with.
Cooper Kupp had been the best receiver until the last few weeks. Jonathan Taylor is looking very good for the Colts. He’s got nearly 400 more yards than the next closest running back and has four more touchdowns than the next closest. So, it is somewhat of a two-horse race right now. This is the most open of all the awards. Brady could still steal this though with multiple touchdowns in the final games. Say Brady gets to 50 touchdowns… that’s hard to ignore. I personally wouldn’t put any money on Kupp, if I was going to take a receiver, it would be Justin Jefferson who is at +10000. With this being the hardest to predict, and most open, I won’t put money on Taylor. I think he is the riskiest of all favorites right now. I’ll put some small plays on Brady at +3000, Austin Eckler at +10000, and Jefferson at +10000. I think all of them have better chances with outstanding final game performances.