There's No Great Free Agency Destination For Joe Rogan In 2024 | Bobby Burack
Joe Rogan signed an exclusive licensing deal with Spotify during the summer of 2020. The reported $200 million deal (originally reported for an erroneous total of $100 million) over three and half years marked an official transition in media.
At that point, talents, agents, and some executives understood that A-level podcasters were worth as much, if not more, than A-level television hosts -- especially those who own their intellectual property.
Spotify's bet on Rogan spearheaded a domino effect of considerable investments into the genre of podcasting.
The company followed up by signing Call Her Daddy host Alex Cooper to a three-year $60 million contract.
SiriusXM purchased Conan O'Brien's podcast company, Team Coco, for $150 million.
Steven Crowder fielded a nearly $20 million-a-year contract from The Daily Wire, before settling with Rumble.
Etc., etc., etc.
Perhaps more than any other singular signing in media -- ahead of Howard Stern's deal with SiriusXM in 2006 -- Rogan's deal with Spotify changed the landscape.
But time moves quickly. The landmark deal is set to expire in early 2024, The Verge confirmed Monday.
The author of the piece spoke to a flock of "podcasters, producers, analysts, agents, and executives" to gain an understanding of Rogan's future. The consensus is that Spotify wants to retain Rogan, though a renewal is hardly certain.
Interestingly, Rogan released an hour of a new episode of the Joe Rogan Experience (JRE) with Elon Musk on X last week. It was the first time since Rogan's deal with Spotify that he aired more than a 15-minute promotion segment on YouTube anywhere other than Spotify. The timing is particularly noteworthy. Elon Musk will most certainly try to sell Rogan on moving his show to X.
Under Musk, X is making an aggressive play into podcasting and video. X offers users the freedom to evade the restrictions of pre-approved topics and guests -- each of Rogan seeks.
X is one of the few places on the internet on which you can challenge societal norms; hold protected groups accountable; and ask questions the government, media and sponsors do not want you to ask (like what does the CIA know about JFK's death??).
However, Rogan has all of that now with Spotify. The service, to its credit, allows Joe Rogan to be Joe Rogan.
He tested the boundaries during the COVID-19 pandemic. He interviewed guests whom legacy media labeled taboo, from Dr. Robert Malone to Peter A. McCullough.
Journalists, advocacy groups and even Spotify employees protested Rogan's coverage of the pandemic by pressuring the company to silence him.
They failed. CEO Daniel Ek showed resistance. Other than labeling a few episodes "COVID-related," the company stood by Rogan. Ek showed both loyalty and a backbone.
So, Musk would likely have to offer more than just freedom for Rogan to move to X.
The media business can be broken down into three Rs: reach, revenue and relevancy. The question is whether Spotify provides Rogan with the best combination of those three categories moving forward.
X edges Spotify in terms of relevancy. The social media service remains the go-to device for promotion and altering perception.
X is where writers locate content to cover, from where headlines are generated and where the culture war is fought.
CNN, Media Matters, and The View don't listen to Rogan on Spotify. They react to clips of Rogan that other users post from Spotify to X.
Rogan would intrinsically increase his relevancy by posting entire segments and episodes on the platform.
Keep in mind that relevancy and reach are different. Relevancy is about response. Reach is mass availability. And neither X nor Spotify provide much of the latter. (Spoiler: most of the country isn't on X.)
Consider a show like The Ben Shapiro Show and how it's available on Spotify, Apple, YouTube, X, Rumble, Facebook, Instagram, TuneIn, iHeart app and every other available podcast player. By contrast, Rogan is only available on Spotify.
Spotify accounts for 17% of the podcast market share. Rogan traded availability for exclusivity.
And that brings us to revenue.
Spotify paid a premium for Rogan at a $57 million-a-year deal, in part, to wrest market share away from Apple and YouTube. Spotify had to overpay for Rogan to catch up with the industry leaders.
It worked ... sort of.
While Spotify overtook Apple, the service trails and continues to lose shares to YouTube, as shown below:
A recent Wall Street Journal article explains how a second-place market share hardly justifies the investment Spotify makes to build a podcasting empire, and how that could influence the company moving forward.
Spotify believed Rogan was worth $200 million in 2020. It might value him less than that today.
As The Verge notes, "Money is a lot tighter than it was several years ago — investors are pissed that Spotify’s podcast bet still is not profitable, and CEO Daniel Ek has pledged to focus on efficiency."
Now, Spotify is still likely to be the highest bidder in terms of a guaranteed salary. For example, X does not sign creators to contracts but offers them the same monetization opportunities -- ad shares, pre-rolls, etc. -- as any other user.
But Rogan could be more apt to take a risk on X or Rumble if Spotify reduces its offer from three years ago.
Finally, a return to complete independence is possible. Rogan can undoubtedly sign with an audio player like iHeart or Westwood One that sells his ads with no editorial oversight.
In this scenario, JRE would stream everywhere.
However, relying on flaky sponsors could cost Rogan loads of money and freedom. While there are sponsors that don't cave to the whims of the offended, there aren't many.
Believe it or not, there are not many realistic suitors for a nine-figure podcast host whom the industry has (wrongly) classified as part of the New Right movement.
My guess: Rogan re-signs with Spotify on a truncated deal, one for less (but still a substantial amount of) money that also allows him to monetize his episodes elsewhere.
A deal in which Spotify has a 24-hour window to exclusively stream each episode of JRE before X, Apple and YouTube do could prove adequate for both sides.
That way, Rogan retains the stability of an uncensored platform while increasing his visibility and Spotify keeps the leading podcaster under its umbrella but at a lower cost.
Either way, Rogan's decision, whatever it may be, will most certainly reset the podcast and media market again.
Like in 2020, the industry will be watching.