The Fight Analyst: Betting UFC 262

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It’s UFC 262 fight week, and it is one fight card that we should be very excited about. The Lightweight Championship is up for grabs after Khabib Nurmagomedov retired and relinquished his belt. Battling it out for the title, #3 Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira and #4 “Iron” Michael Chandler will be looking to put on a show in the main event for however long it lasts. This PPV is littered with great fights from top to bottom, and with great fights comes a great night of betting. We as fight fans get to enjoy an exciting night of fights and make money while doing it. 

Shane Burgos (-134) vs Edson Barboza (+110)

The PPV opens up with one of the most exciting fights of the night: the featherweight division between #9 Shane Burgos and #13 Edson Barboza. These two strikers can end any opponent with just one strike on any given night. Keep your eyes peeled to the screen as you could miss an ending sequence at any moment!

Edson Barboza is coming into this matchup coming off of his best performance since making the cut to 145 lbs with a dominant decision victory over Makwan Amirkhani. Even at age 35, Barboza has looked the best he ever has in his new division. He is going to need to keep that momentum going in a tough matchup against surging contender Shane Burgos

Shane Burgos is looking to get back into the win column after dropping a tough decision loss to fellow featherweight Josh Emmett. Burgos has a fan-favorite fighting style that is hard to deal with for an entire 15 minutes. As long as Burgos’ chin stays intact in this fight, he should find a ton of success in this bout.

Burgos has the distinct volume advantage in this matchup as he throws 5.36 more strikes per minute (14.62 to 9.26) and lands 3.33 strikes per minute (7.31 to 3.98) more than Barboza. The drawback of that is Burgos tends to get hit a lot and has been dropped 5 times in 3 of his last 5 fights. If Burgos can keep his head on a swivel and avoid the power shots of Barboza, he should be able to take a unanimous decision victory here.

The pick: Shane Burgos -134

Katlyn Chookagian (-142) vs Viviane Araujo (+116)

Mainstays in the women’s flyweight division square off in a fight between #2 Katlyn Chookagian and the surging #7 Viviane Araujo. Both women are coming off of dominant performances and are looking to put their name into title contention with a win come Saturday night.

Viviane Araujo has been emerging as a contender in the flyweight ever since she stepped foot inside the octagon. She is a very well-rounded mixed martial artist who can beat her opponents on the feet or on the mat. If she wants to pull off the upset in this matchup, she will need to lean on her grappling and her Brazilian Jiu Jitsu background to get the job done.

Katlyn Chookagian has been at the top of the flyweight division since its creation. She uses her height and length to keep her opponents at range and out volume them to wide decisions. Chookagian needs to stay on her bike for the majority of this fight to stay out of the range of Araujo if she wants to cement her name for another title shot.

As long as this fight plays out on the feet, it’s in Chookagian’s wheelhouse. Araujo will need to mix in the takedowns and hammer Chookagian’s lead leg in order to slow down her movement on the feet. If Araujo plays the distance game with Chookagian, it’s going to be a tough fight to win on the judges’ scorecards. With that said, Araujo should be able to take the fight to the mat to score enough in the judges’ eyes.

The pick: Viviane Araujo +116

Matt Schnell (-164) vs Rogerio Bontorin (+134)

With a couple of last-minute fight cancelations, this bantamweight fight between two ranked flyweight contenders, #8 Matt Schnell and #9 Rogerio Bontorin, has been bumped up to the main card. With this line is as close as it is, there must be some value to be had in this fight.

Rogerio Bontorin is coming into this fight with his back against the wall, sustaining back-to-back losses for the first time in his MMA career. In his most recent loss, he was winning the fight until he wasn’t. He is a very good grappler and a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, and he will need to utilize that to his advantage in this matchup against Matt Schnell.

Matt Schnell is coming off of arguably his best performance to date with a split decision win against Tyson Nam. Schnell is going to have the size (3” height and 3” reach) and speed advantage in this fight, and he is going to need to use these advantages to keep Bontorin at the edge of his punches. If he lets Bontorin close the distance and initiate the grappling, it could be a long night for him.

Matt Schnell’s lack of power may be the difference-maker here. Without the power to keep Bontorin from pressing forward, it’s going to be hard for Schnell to keep him from level changing and taking the fight to the mat. Schnell has a notoriously bad takedown defense in his UFC career (53%), as he has been taken down 6 times in 8 fights. If Schnell can’t stuff the initial takedown attempts from Bonterin or scramble to his feet, there is a good chance that Bonterin gets the finish on the mat. 

The pick: Rogerio Bontorin +134

Beneil Dariush (-162) vs Tony Ferguson (+132)

In the co-main event, we have a fight between two of the lightweight division’s best, #5 Tony Ferguson and #9 Beneil Dariush. Dariush is looking to make a statement with a win, while Ferguson is trying to get back on track and show that he still belongs in the title talks at the top of the division.

Beneil Dariush has been on a tear as of late, riding a 6-fight win streak. He is looking to get the biggest win of his career come Saturday night and make a leap in the lightweight division. Dariush’s all-around skill set is going to come in handy against the dangerous Tony Ferguson. He will need to be smart and fight his fight against Ferguson, who comes in with a style that is very difficult to gameplan for.

Tony Ferguson has looked like a shell of his former self coming into this matchup, losing his last two fights. Ferguson is going to need to bring out what got him to the UFC, and that is his unorthodox and dangerous attacking style of fighting. If he is able to do that and make this fight a crazy brawl, he has a very good chance of causing the upset. 

This is a very interesting matchup and a great one for the co-main event. With that said, this is Dariush’s fight to lose as long as he fights smart. If he engages in that type of crazy fight that Ferguson wants, then Ferguson is live for the upset. Dariush should mix in the takedowns along with his pressure fighting style to get his hand raised here and put his name at the top of the list in the lightweight division.

The pick: Beneil Dariush -162

Charles Oliveira (-142) vs Michael Chandler (+116)

In the main event the vacant Lightweight Championship is on the line, and battling it out are the two of the divisions best: #3 Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira and “Iron” #4 Michael Chandler. This fight has fireworks written all over it for however long that it may last.

Michael Chandler has a ton of momentum coming into this fight. He came into the UFC guns blazing with a first-round knockout of Dan Hooker in his promotional debut. With that massive win he was rewarded with a title shot 4 months later after the former lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov retired. Chandler’s pressure fighting style is going to give anyone standing in front of him a ton of problems, and Oliveira will have his hands full come Saturday night.

Charles Oliveira is the UFC’s best submission artist with the most submission wins in UFC history (14). His best work comes when the fight hits the mat, but he is also no slouch on the feet either. Oliveira is going to need to utilize the reach (3”) advantage that he possesses to keep Chandler from just barreling forward as he did against Hooker. His best bet is to weather the early storm of Chandler and drag him into deep waters to sink in a submission late to be crowned the new champion.

This is a fantastic matchup between two of the best fighters the UFC has to offer. We have seen in Oliveira’s past fights that he wilts under the pressure, and he is not one to come back in fights that he is losing. Chandler is going to have to keep the pace and pressure on Oliveira to break him early to be victorious much like he did to Dan Hooker. Expect an action-packed championship fight right from the jump and one you certainly will not want to miss!

The pick: Michael Chandler +116

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Next we will take a look at some of the best value bets for UFC 262. These are bets that you can place a small wager to cash out big.

Value Bets:

Rogerio Bontorin by submission +700

11 of Bontorin’s 16 wins have come by submission and the Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt should have a bunch of chances of sinking in that submission against Matt Schnell who has been subbed 3 times in his professional career.

Michael Chandler KO/TKO & Round 1 +500

Michael Chandler should come out like a bat out of hell in that first round and will be looking to take Oliveira’s head off much as he did against Dan Hooker. Chandler also has 13 first round finishes (7 KO) in his 22 wins. He also has stated in interviews that he expects a first round knockout and at those odds, it’s worth the gamble.

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Written by OutKick Bets

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