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The Dodgers don’t really lose many games. As such, you won’t see them as an underdog on the moneyline very often during the season. Tonight, they are underdogs as one of the rotation replacements is taking the ball.
Ryan Pepiot takes the mound and will make his sixth appearance of the season and just his second consecutive start. After the Dodgers announced that Walker Buehler will be out for the year, I would expect to see Pepiot be in the rotation a bit more consistently. Consistency is what I’m looking for out of Pepiot. It may not be fair to judge him on three appearances in May, one in July, and one in August, but that’s the information we have at our disposal. His outing against the Twins last week wasn’t terrible. He only went 4.1 innings and allowed four earned runs, but it was a couple of mistakes rather than constantly being hit. The biggest concern for me with him is the number of walks he issues. He’s allowed 15 walks in 20.2 innings this season. The Brewers get some of the most walks per game in the Majors.
For the Brewers, they have Brandon Woodruff pitching for them. He’s put together a nice campaign for himself. On the season, he has a 3.52 ERA and has started 17 games for the Brewers. At home, he’s been even better, he has a 2.38 ERA. He is in a solid pitching form right now too, with seven of his past eight games being quality starts. He’s been successful against the Dodgers in limited appearances. He has held the hitters to a .209 average against him. I am looking at his opponents this season though and don’t really find much tough competition for him. He’s had eight starts combined against the Cubs, Reds, and Pirates.
I think the Brewers probably win the first half of this game, but if Pepiot keeps it close, the Dodgers should be able to win the full game. I have to take the moneyline for the Dodgers at +104.