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It’s the must-see game of the week!
The Green Bay Packers host the Tennessee Titans on Sunday night, and we’ve got the betting guide to help you make the most informed pick.
Playoff seeding implications are at stake, with the primetime game essentially a must-win for both sides. The Packers clinched the NFC North already, and they hold first place in the NFC. If they win out, they’ll earn a first-round bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
The Titans look poised to clinch a second consecutive playoff berth but need a win to stay atop the AFC South. The Indianapolis Colts could supplant them with a win and Tennessee loss.
The weather will likely be cold and possibly snowy, leaving us with a keen eye on the total. I’m thrilled to bet on it, but I’ll expand later. First, let’s take a glance at what is offered.
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Here are current odds via the FanDuel Sportsbook:
Moneyline: TEN: (+152), GB: (-180)
Spread: TEN: +3 (-102), GB: -3 (-120)
Total: 56.5 – Over: (-105), Under: (-115)
(Odds subject to change.)
It’s undoubtedly one of the most intriguing games to bet this weekend. Larger bets came in on the Titans early, causing the spread to go from +4 to +3, but Packers bettors have somewhat closed the gap since. With no prominent edge from sharps as of this writing, we’re in for an incredible battle. Let’s analyze.
HERE’S HOW GREEN BAY CAN COVER:
The Packers’ No. 3 ranked offense needs to wake up fast. Only 3 of their 24 points last week came in the second half. That doesn’t spell well for a team going up against the No. 1 scoring offense in football, the Tennessee Titans.
The good news? Aaron Rodgers is their quarterback. And the Titans are ranked 29th against the pass.
Rodgers has lit the stat sheet up in primetime games this season, too, with the Packers averaging 33.2 points in those contests. It’s fair to expect another big outing from the signal-caller against the softest pass-rush in football. Tennessee has sacked quarterbacks only 14 times this season, the worst in the NFL.
If Green Bay’s defense plays reasonably well against a high-powered Titan offense, there aren’t many scenarios where Green Bay doesn’t put up enough points to cover the 3-point spread. Whether close or a shootout, the Packers are well-equipped.
HERE’S HOW TENNESSEE CAN COVER:
The Titans need to unleash the best running back in football: Derrick Henry.
While the Packers are ranked a respectable 11th against the run this season, they allow 4.5 yards per carry. That’s plenty of wiggle room for the hard-hitting Henry, who averages 5.2 yards per carry.
The Titans have arguably the most balanced offense in football, hence why they lead the NFL in scoring. Henry is the key to it all working. Exploiting Green Bay’s rush defense is critical, not just because it’s the Titans’ strength, but because it runs the clock.
A strong offensive showing is imperative to aid their biggest weakness: their defense. Minimize the amount of time the defense spends on the field, and the Titans can do enough to cover the points and perhaps win outright.
THE PICK: Packers -3
The line is razor-thin for a reason. There’s a lot to love about both teams, but the Packers are the better side.
However, I’m way more intrigued by the total.
THE PICK: Over 56.5
Cold weather? Chance of snow? Who cares? Guaranteed points!
We’re looking at a game featuring the two best red-zone offenses in football. The Packers convert with a touchdown in 78.4% of their red-zone trips, while the Titans convert 75.4% of theirs. Simply put, if either team is inside the 20-yard line, they’ll score at will.
There’s also an obvious flaw in the Titans’ defense that helps this bet. Tennessee has the 3rd-worst red-zone defense in football, allowing a touchdown 70.9% of the time. While this doesn’t bode well for Titans backers, it’s the perfect stat to make a case for our total. The Titans are 10-3-1 on overs this season because of it.
I’m hammering this bet and think you should too! As always, best of luck and happy betting!
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