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This is a buy-low spot for the No. 24 Texas A&M Aggies (1-1) when they host the No. 13 Miami Hurricanes (2-0) Saturday at Kyle Field in College Station, TX.
Texas A&M was upset 17-14 at home last week by the Sun Belt’s Appalachian State Mountaineers. A&M was an 18-point favorite in the game. The Aggies have underwhelmed since head coach Jimbo Fisher took over the program in 2018. Texas A&M is yet to play in an SEC title game or win more than nine games.
Miami beat Sun Belt’s Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 30-7 Saturday but failed to cover as 27.5-point favorites. It’s a new era in Dade County after Miami hired Mario Cristobal away from the Oregon Ducks this offseason.
However, the sharp side is on Texas A&M. The SEC dominates the ACC, Miami isn’t as good as its record indicates and this is a better spot for Texas A&M.
Betting Deets (DraftKings)
- Moneyline: Miami (+195), Texas A&M (-230)
- Against the spread (ATS): Miami +6 (-105), TEXAS A&M -6 (-115)
- Total (O/U) — 44.5 — O: -110, U: -110
Bounce-Back Spot For Texas A&M
Texas A&M got dragged by the talking heads this past week for losing at home to a Sun Belt team but the Mountaineers are no chumps.
App State was projected to finish 46th in schedule-based net efficiency per Football Outsiders’ (FO) preseason preview. It currently ranks 34th in schedule-based net efficiency.
Whereas Miami beat the brakes off FCS opponent Bethune-Cookman and Southern Mississippi. The Hurricanes were 49.5-point favorites vs. Bethune-Cookman and Southern Mississippi ranks just 115th in schedule-based net efficiency per FO.
Also, Miami’s win vs. Southern Miss was a lot closer than the final score indicates. The Hurricanes were only up 10-7 going into halftime and failed to cover.
More importantly, the Pros are backing Texas A&M while your average Joe is taking Miami. According to Pregame.com, a slight majority of the cash is on the Aggies while nearly 60% of the bets are on the Hurricanes at the time of publishing.
Typically, it’s wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public. Professional bettors put up a lot more dough than you or I. Apparently, the sharp side of the market isn’t overreacting to Texas A&M’s embarrassing loss to App State last week.
The Aggies Are Just A Better Team
The talent gap between the two schools’ conferences is too big for Miami to overcome. Since 2017, SEC schools are 19-1 overall with a +23.9 margin of victory vs. ACC schools and 15-5 ATS with a +7.6 ATS margin.
With that in mind, Texas A&M had the country’s best recruiting class in 2022; Miami ranked 16th. The Aggies’ recruiting class has ranked eighth or better over the last four years.
Despite A&M’s stinker last week against App State, the Aggies (20th) still outrank the Hurricanes (38th) in net efficiency, according to FO.
Furthermore, Texas A&M has a higher non-garbage time expected points added per play, success rate, line yards per snap and Havoc rate differentials. In fact, Miami has a net negative differential in all those categories.
In addition, this is a much better spot for Texas A&M. During the Cristobal-era in Oregon (2018-21), the Ducks were 0-2 ATS vs. SEC foes with a -16.3 ATS margin, 2-4 ATS as underdogs of six or more points and 3-5 ATS as road ‘dogs.
Conversely, A&M is 3-1 ATS with a 3.5 ATS DIF after losing at home in Fisher’s tenure. Also, the Aggies are 18-11-1 ATS as favorites of six or more points and 9-4-1 ATS vs. non-conference foes as favorites of six or more points.
Shake-Up Under Center
Finally, I’m buying stock in Texas A&M’s offense and selling Miami’s offense. The Aggies are finally benching sophomore QB Haynes King in favor of transfer junior QB Max Johnson. King hasn’t lived up to his four-star potential and Johnson should’ve started the season under center. While Miami will be without star WR Xavier Restrepo who’s sidelined with a foot injury.
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and BET the TEXAS A&M AGGIES -6 (-115).
- A $115 wager on Texas A&M -6 (-115) returns a $100 profit if the Aggies win by seven or more points. Your money is refunded if Texas A&M beats Miami by six points.
Don’t @ Me: CFB Week 3 & NFL Week 2 Bets With Geoff Clark
Nebraska +12.5 vs Oklahoma
Saints +2.5 vs Brady and the Bucs
Eagles -2 vs Vikings
Texas A&M -6 vs Miami
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