Texas A&M Pummels Miami Saturday In College Station

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This is a buy-low spot for the No. 24 Texas A&M Aggies (1-1) when they host the No. 13 Miami Hurricanes (2-0) Saturday at Kyle Field in College Station, TX.

Texas A&M was upset 17-14 at home last week by the Sun Belt’s Appalachian State Mountaineers. A&M was an 18-point favorite in the game. The Aggies have underwhelmed since head coach Jimbo Fisher took over the program in 2018. Texas A&M is yet to play in an SEC title game or win more than nine games.

Miami beat Sun Belt’s Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 30-7 Saturday but failed to cover as 27.5-point favorites. It’s a new era in Dade County after Miami hired Mario Cristobal away from the Oregon Ducks this offseason.

However, the sharp side is on Texas A&M. The SEC dominates the ACC, Miami isn’t as good as its record indicates and this is a better spot for Texas A&M.

Betting Deets (DraftKings)

  • Moneyline: Miami (+195), Texas A&M (-230)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Miami +6 (-105), TEXAS A&M -6 (-115)
  • Total (O/U) — 44.5 — O: -110, U: -110
Texas A&M Aggies PK Caden Davis reacts after missing a field goal to tie the game with two minutes vs. the Appalachian State Mountaineers at Kyle Field.
Texas A&M Aggies PK Caden Davis reacts after missing a field goal to tie the game with two minutes vs. the Appalachian State Mountaineers at Kyle Field. (Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Bounce-Back Spot For Texas A&M

Texas A&M got dragged by the talking heads this past week for losing at home to a Sun Belt team but the Mountaineers are no chumps.

App State was projected to finish 46th in schedule-based net efficiency per Football Outsiders’ (FO) preseason preview. It currently ranks 34th in schedule-based net efficiency.

Whereas Miami beat the brakes off FCS opponent Bethune-Cookman and Southern Mississippi. The Hurricanes were 49.5-point favorites vs. Bethune-Cookman and Southern Mississippi ranks just 115th in schedule-based net efficiency per FO.

Also, Miami’s win vs. Southern Miss was a lot closer than the final score indicates. The Hurricanes were only up 10-7 going into halftime and failed to cover.

More importantly, the Pros are backing Texas A&M while your average Joe is taking Miami. According to Pregame.com, a slight majority of the cash is on the Aggies while nearly 60% of the bets are on the Hurricanes at the time of publishing.

Typically, it’s wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public. Professional bettors put up a lot more dough than you or I. Apparently, the sharp side of the market isn’t overreacting to Texas A&M’s embarrassing loss to App State last week.

The Aggies Are Just A Better Team

The talent gap between the two schools’ conferences is too big for Miami to overcome. Since 2017, SEC schools are 19-1 overall with a +23.9 margin of victory vs. ACC schools and 15-5 ATS with a +7.6 ATS margin.

With that in mind, Texas A&M had the country’s best recruiting class in 2022; Miami ranked 16th. The Aggies’ recruiting class has ranked eighth or better over the last four years.

Despite A&M’s stinker last week against App State, the Aggies (20th) still outrank the Hurricanes (38th) in net efficiency, according to FO.

Furthermore, Texas A&M has a higher non-garbage time expected points added per play, success rate, line yards per snap and Havoc rate differentials. In fact, Miami has a net negative differential in all those categories.

In addition, this is a much better spot for Texas A&M. During the Cristobal-era in Oregon (2018-21), the Ducks were 0-2 ATS vs. SEC foes with a -16.3 ATS margin, 2-4 ATS as underdogs of six or more points and 3-5 ATS as road ‘dogs.

Conversely, A&M is 3-1 ATS with a 3.5 ATS DIF after losing at home in Fisher’s tenure. Also, the Aggies are 18-11-1 ATS as favorites of six or more points and 9-4-1 ATS vs. non-conference foes as favorites of six or more points.  

Shake-Up Under Center

Finally, I’m buying stock in Texas A&M’s offense and selling Miami’s offense. The Aggies are finally benching sophomore QB Haynes King in favor of transfer junior QB Max Johnson. King hasn’t lived up to his four-star potential and Johnson should’ve started the season under center. While Miami will be without star WR Xavier Restrepo who’s sidelined with a foot injury.

Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and BET the TEXAS A&M AGGIES -6 (-115).

  • A $115 wager on Texas A&M -6 (-115) returns a $100 profit if the Aggies win by seven or more points. Your money is refunded if Texas A&M beats Miami by six points.

Don’t @ Me: CFB Week 3 & NFL Week 2 Bets With Geoff Clark

Nebraska +12.5 vs Oklahoma
Saints +2.5 vs Brady and the Bucs
Eagles -2 vs Vikings
Texas A&M -6 vs Miami

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Written by Geoff Clark

Geoff Clark serves as OutKick’s sports betting guru. As a writer and host of OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark, he dives deep into the sports betting landscape and welcomes an array of sports betting personalities on his show to handicap America’s biggest sporting events.

Previously, Clark was a writer/podcaster for USA TODAY's Sportsbook Wire website, handicapping all the major sports tentpoles with a major focus on the NFL, NBA and MLB.

Clark graduated from St. John University.

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