Videos by OutKick
Cubs vs. Marlins, 12:05 ET
Sometimes things just don’t work out for you. I’m pretty transparent about my picks, it goes with the territory of posting full articles daily for people to evaluate, but I try and provide a recap in the following day’s article as well. Let me just mention that I’ve never been more wrong about a play than I was yesterday in the Mexico City game. The total was an astronomical 15.5 runs. I played the under. San Diego covered the total by itself and San Francisco put on another 11. Hopefully a better outcome in this play.
The Cubs find themselves as losers of two straight to the lowly Miami Marlins team. I suppose it isn’t fair to call Miami lowly right now considering they are above .500 and playing pretty good baseball. But, a team with a .248 batting average and just 95 runs on the season is getting lucky, not necessarily good. Nothing is wrong with the batting average, but clearly, these aren’t high-scoring games for them. No matter, a win is a win and right now they look like a decent squad despite them having very little recognizable Major League talent. Their pitching staff also has a 4.46 ERA so how they are getting wins is a little crazy to me. The Cubs are hitting well and pitching well, so their wins make sense and they probably should be better than they are, at least record-wise.
Today, the Cubs do find themselves with the edge though as they send Justin Steele to the mound. If the season was a month-long, he would arguably be the Cy Young winner for the National League. He has been that good. Having allowed just four earned runs over 30 innings this month has been a spectacular start for him. He’s been slightly worse in his road starts than home starts, but I think he is still dependable enough here. The Marlins are sending Bryan Hoeing to the mound with his 9.82 ERA. In fairness to him, he only had one start and it was 3.2 inning outting where he allowed four earned runs.
The Cubs certainly have the edge today and the price isn’t ridiculously unreasonable with a -165 tag, but I won’t give something like that out. I am shifting to the Marlins under 3.5 runs for their team today. I think they get maybe three at most, but this shouldn’t be a sweat. I’ll back the under.
For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024