Taking A Shot On A +360 Dog

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Coyotes vs. Oilers, 10:30 ET

Today might not be the most ideal day to bet on a longshot, because I took a coinflip yesterday and lost. But, yesterday’s results have no bearing on today’s games. I just mention it because I usually am more willing to take a shot on a dog like this when I’ve been running hot. Lately, I’ve been running like a roller coaster, but I’ve had some pretty decent underdogs winning too. Let’s get to this one.

The Arizona Coyotes are not a very good hockey team, they have a sub-.500 record, sitting at 27-33-11 overall. They are particularly bad on the road with just seven wins on the season and 30 total losses (eight have come in overtime). So why do we want to back them in this situation? Most of the reason is the way they’ve been playing lately. Over their past five games they are 4-1 and the one loss, of course, came on the road. Part of me thinks that the reason for this high of a line is that the Coyotes were killed in the first matchup at Edmonton, losing the game 8-2. I think that we will see Ivan Prosvetov in the net for the Coyotes tonight. He only has three games this season, all have come this month but the Coyotes are 3-0 in those games and he hasn’t allowed more than two goals in a game yet. All three games were home games, so we have to see how he performs on the road. Arizona should have an extra bit of confidence in their new keeper was he’s allowed just five goals in 105 shots.

Edmonton is holding onto a playoff spot right now and should be able to make it. The Oilers, led by Connor McDavid, have also been playing very good hockey lately winning four of their past five games. They did have a bit of a tough game in their last outing, beating the Sharks 5-4 in overtime. I expect the Oilers to have Stuart Skinner in the net. He’s been slightly inconsistent over his past five March starts with as few as one goal allowed and as many as six goals. He did face the Coyotes in the first matchup this season. The Oilers also have won seven of the past eight games that he started. On the season though, Skinner is just kind of average, not really excelling in any area in particular. To me, that shows that he has some vulnerability. I will also mention that this is the middle game of a three-game homestand – I’d feel more confident in them losing tonight if it was the last game.

So here’s my play: I’m taking the Coyotes +360 tonight. I think the line is wrong. Now, I’m not saying that Arizona is a lock or that you definitely should follow this. But, I think there is a ton of value and this line should be closer to +170 or something. I can’t pass this up and I do think the ticket will cash, but the value is what really drives me to the window with this one.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024

Written by David Troy

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