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It’s Super Bowl weekend and college hoops are trying to uphold their end of the bargain with most of the top-25 teams playing conference games Saturday. I’m locking in on an ACC showdown between Duke-Virginia and a Big XII battle of Baylor-TCU.
Duke Blue Devils (17-7) at No. 8 Virginia Cavaliers (18-4), 4 p.m. ET
The Cavaliers are 6-point favorites over the Blue Devils because of the gap in experience, which is the main reason for Duke’s poor performance on the road.
Per college basketball analyst Ken Pom, Virginia is 4th nationally in experience out of 363 schools and Duke is 290th. The Blue Devils are 1-6 against the spread (ATS) on the road this season with a -6.9 ATS margin.
Also, Duke’s youth shows in its offensive execution. Duke ranks 231st in both effective field goal shooting and offensive FT/FGA rate, and 218th in offensive turnover rate.
Ken Pom ranks Virginia’s defense 23rd in overall efficiency. The Cavs are 4-1-1 in their last six games, 4-0 ATS in their last four home games and 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. teams with a 60.0% winning rate or better.
College Hoops Best Bet #1: Virginia -6 (-110), up to -6.5
No. 14 Baylor Bears (18-6) at No. 17 TCU Horned Frogs (17-7)
Baylor has won seven of its last nine games (6-2-1 ATS) including back-to-back double-digit victories over Texas Tech and Oklahoma.
The Horned Frogs have struggled lately, going 3-4 overall and ATS over the last seven games. TCU has dropped two straight entering Saturday at Oklahoma State and Kansas State.
I’m fading the Horned Frogs who are missing two starters in leading scorer Mike Miles and C Eddie Lampkin. Also, this is a revenge spot for Baylor who lost at home vs. TCU 88-87 on Jan. 4.
But, Miles scored a game-high 33 points vs. Baylor and Lampkin grabbed a team-high 9 rebounds, adding 15 points. Plus the Bears won three of the “four factors” vs. the Horned Frogs in their 1st meeting.
Baylor had a +8 rebounding differential over TCU last month WITH Lampkin. The Bears are 12th in offensive rebounding rate and the Horned Frogs are 299th defensively, per Ken Pom. Without Lampkin, Baylor should own the glass Saturday.
College Hoops Best Bet #2: Baylor -2 (-110), up to -2.5
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