Take the Underdog in Baylor vs. Air Force

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Baylor vs. Air Force, 7:30 ET

When you think of military schools and Bowl Games, the first thought usually is to look at the Army vs. Navy game. This one will have a bit of a different flavor, but it is still an interesting matchup between a Baylor team that came in with some decent expectations on the season, and an Air Force team that has done an admirable job the entire season.

Baylor is just 6-6 on the season and struggled against the backdrop of a tough schedule. Over the season, they faced five ranked opponents. They lost to all five. I will give them credit for being competitive in two of them, but the others were not very close games. They also have lost their previous three games coming into this one. Now they have to take on an Air Force that ironically is focused on attacking you through the ground rather than the air. Can they stop the run? There is almost no question that Baylor needs to go out and find a way to slow Air Force’s front line down. I don’t think they can do it for the full game, but they need to figure out a way to at least keep them down. The Air Force defense also doesn’t really stay on the field very often because they control the clock on offense. That’s part of the reason that the defense only allows 256 yards of offense to opponents.

In order for Air Force to win, they need to be able to win the running game battle. Let’s be honest, everyone in the stadium knows what is coming and they just dare you to stop them. I do think Baylor can contain them, but will they be able to do it long enough to hold Army down for the full game? I also wonder if they can stop Baylor’s offense. Baylor’s record isn’t great, but they have played against teams that are better than Air Force. Air Force hasn’t really played against anyone with the offensive capabilities of Baylor. Again, if they can control the ball, and control the pace of the game, it doesn’t really matter what Baylor’s offense does, they won’t be on the field long enough to make a difference.

I’m taking Air Force to win this game at +150. If you want the safer bet, take the 3.5 points, but I think Air Force has a good enough defense to stop Baylor if they get limited opportunities. If Baylor figures out the run game for Air Force, then the 3.5 points won’t matter anyway. Moneyline is the best way to go.

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Written by David Troy

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