Take the Under in Bills vs. Patriots

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Bills vs. Patriots, 8:15 ET

Everyone seems to think the Bills are still the favorite to win the Super Bowl, but they really haven’t looked great lately. Over their past few weeks, they’ve struggled both offensively and defensively. The Patriots are still figuring things out for the season and their future, but they certainly looked better last week and might be onto something against these Bills.

Let me start with this, the Bills are not a balanced team. Their offense is led by quarterback Josh Allen, and honestly, I think that they would ask him to receive his own passes if he was capable of it. He has to do so much for the Bills that they have become a bit predictable. They don’t really have a run game to speak of and most of their rushing yards are coming from Allen when he has to scramble. Their defense will also be down a bit without Vonn Miller in this game. I would be a little surprised if they can get a lot of pressure on Mac Jones in the game. The only benefit is that Jones is about as mobile as a tree trunk so if the defense can get through, they can sack him with relative ease.

The Patriots have one big edge – Bill Bellichick. I’ve said this before, but he knows how to take your best player out of the game, so expect Stefon Diggs to be the focus for him. You can’t really just take a quarterback out of the game, that’s why I didn’t mention Allen. Now the Bills, who only have a passing game, will have to find a way to out-scheme Bellichick. On offense, though, Mac Jones needs to play at least as well as he did last week. However, think about this: last week, he played one of his best games of the season and the Patriots still lost to the Vikings. In games that Jones started, the most points that New England has scored was 26. They’ve done it twice. If they have to play from behind, I can’t imagine they have the right personnel for this. Running backs don’t mean much, but Damien Harris will be out for this one as well, which hurts even more.

I think the Bills are the right side in this one, but I am playing under 43.5 in this game. I expect that the Bills defense will be able to get their job done against the bad Patriots offense. I also think that the Patriots defense will be able slow down the Bills offense enough. It is possible the Patriots could pull this game out, but only if the under hits. They won’t be winning in a shootout.

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Written by David Troy

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