Take The Struggling Phillies Against Reds

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Phillies vs. Reds, 6:40 ET

It is a bit of a short slate, but that’s pretty normal for Thursdays as they end up being the getaway day for some teams and off days for others. You’ll notice it over the course of the season, but Thursday is one of the days during the year that you’ll notice a lot of teams off. Monday is another one of those days. Still, we get opportunities on Thursday to make money, so we should take advantage of them.

The Phillies are one of the more disappointing teams to start the year. They sit at just 4-8 on the season so far, and have been absolutely brutal on the road to this point with a 1-5 record. I have to assume they are better than that, but this has been a bad start to the year for a team that came off of a World Series appearance. This is the second time already in the young season that they have a series against the Reds. In the first series, a home series, they were able to take two of the three games that were played. We had this exact pitching matchup in that series and Bailey Falter was able to beat the Reds in a 3-2 game. He’s been solid for the Phillies to start the season with 10.1 innings pitched and three total earned runs on the season. He has given up 11 hits though and a home run in each game, so the starts aren’t quite flawless or anything.

The Reds are also off to a poor start at the beginning of the season. However, this was to be expected as no one has any real hopes that the Reds make a ton of progress this season. Instead, we expect them to lose 100 games or really struggle. They’ve only had five games on the season but they are 3-2 at home which is something positive to take away. They are sending Nick Lodolo out to the mound today and he has been their best starter this season. He was very good against the Phillies going seven innings and allowing just three hits and no earned runs. He did allow seven hits and two earned runs over five innings against the Pirates to start the season. Lodolo was solid even in his starts basically since the middle of last August. Coincidentally that also started against the Phillies where he had two consecutive starts. Last year, he threw seven scoreless innings against the Phillies, then followed it up with four earned runs allowed over 5.1 innings the very next start against the Phillies.

I’m taking the Phillies in this one. I do think the Reds have the better pitcher but I think Philadelphia might have a bit of the edge in this game and I can get them at plus money so I’ll take my chances that they can make the impact in this game. My hope is that history repeats itself and Lodolo has the stinker in the second consecutive start against Philadelphia. Back the Phillies to win this one at +115.

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Written by David Troy

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