Take The Points In Rutgers-Purdue Big Ten Tourney Meeting Friday
The 9-seed Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. the 1-seed Purdue Boilermakers is a David vs. Goliath quarterfinals bout in the 2023 Big Ten Conference Tournament. Tip-off at the United Center in Chicago is set for noon ET.
Purdue won the regular-season Big Ten championship and earned a double bye. Whereas Rutgers clubbed the Michigan Wolverines 62-50 Thursday in the 2nd round of the Big Ten tourney.
Purdue Boilermakers C Zach Edey makes a move to the basket against Rutgers Scarlet Knights F Aundre Hyatt at Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana. (Michael Hickey/Getty Images)
The Scarlet Knights upset the Boilermakers 65-64 on the road Jan. 2 as 8.5-point 'dogs, handing Purdue one of its five regular-season losses.
For the record, I bet both of these teams earlier this week to win the Big Ten tournament. I got Rutgers at +2000 and Penn State at +2500 and hedged by betting Purdue at +150 as the tournament favorite.
However, I'm double dipping with the Scarlet Knights Friday because their length on the wing and backcourt defense gives the Boilermakers trouble.
Rutgers-Purdue Betting Board (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Most teams don't have the size to handle Purdue C, and Big Ten Player of the Year, Zach Edey but Rutgers does. Per KenPom.com, the Scarlets Knights actually have a taller average height than the Boilermakers.
Edey measures 7-foot-4, 285 pounds and Rutgers big Clifford Omoruyi stands 6-foot-11 and weighs in at 240 pounds. But Omoruyi uses his size and leads the Big Ten in both Defensive Win Shares and defensive rating.
The next two Big Ten players in the top-three of defensive rating are Rutgers guards. Scarlet Knights G, and Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, Caleb McConnell and G Cam Spencer.
Northwestern Wildcats PG Boo Buie trying to drive against Rutgers guards Cam Spencer and Caleb McConnell at Jersey Mike's Arena in Piscataway, New Jersey. (Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
My main concern with Purdue's title chances is both starting guards are freshmen. Guard-play is more important in tournament-basketball than bigs. Rutgers are dogs on defense and can Purdue's young backcourt uncomfortable.
Part of the reason the Scarlet Knights upset the Boilermakers earlier this season was Rutgers made it tough for Purdue to get Edey good looks. That's the problem when playing through bigs in elimination basketball.
Per VSIN, roughly 75% of the action is on Purdue at DraftKings at the time of writing. Sportsbooks are reacting to all the pro-Boilermakers money and have moved Purdue up from -5 on the opener.
The bottom line is Rutgers' defense is too good for the Boilermakers to cover this number. Purdue is just 9-15-2 ATS as a favorite this season. Rutgers is 7-1-1 against the spread vs. Purdue since 2018.