Take The Over In Reds, Padres

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Reds vs. Padres, 9:40 ET

This baseball season has been very interesting to start. We are already a month deep into the year and only one team has really set themselves apart as a clear top team – the Rays. Sure, you can say the Braves are another, but there are also a lot of average teams. Maybe that’s a good sign for the balance, but something is severely wrong if the Reds and Padres have similar records within another month.

If you’ve ever read a piece on the Rockies that I’ve written, you probably came across a note that the Rockies are solid – or about .500 at home and terrible on the road. It is starting to look like that with the Reds at least through the first month of the season. At home, the Reds are a solid enough 9-6, and on the road, just 3-10. Now they take on the Padres in a West Coast matchup. Luke Weaver is taking the ball for the Reds today. He’s only had two starts for the Reds and neither of them were very good. He allowed four earned to the Pirates and six to the Rangers. Over his 11.2 innings, he’s allowed five homers and 12 hits. Padres hitters are 20-for-68 against him in their careers.

Eventually, this high powered Padres offense needs to start clicking (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

The Padres are coming back from the Mexico City games which was an interesting stretch. In the first game, the teams combined for 27 runs, then the next day they combined for 10. The 10 was a much more reasonable game to me because the Padres are not hitting very well to start the year. I’m sure they can, and will, turn it around. Tonight, they are turning the ball over to Blake Snell. He has been struggling to get through innings this year as he hasn’t made it into the 6th once this year. He has also allowed at least three walks in all of his past four starts. He’s also allowed at least one home run in those starts, too. He’s been reasonable with his runs allowed outside of that though. Only one Red hitter has any experience worth speaking about – Luke Maile is 3-for-7 against Snell.

Snell has given up runs in each of his starts and Weaver has been hit hard in his two games. I think the best play here is to take the over through five innings. Both teams should contribute here so I’m happy with the over 4.5 in this one.

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Written by David Troy

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